Data Diario

Spain's Biggest Union Is Suing Amazon for Spying on Striking Workers

2020.12.02 21:02 autotldr Spain's Biggest Union Is Suing Amazon for Spying on Striking Workers

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 67%. (I'm a bot)
El Diario reported on Monday that Amazon spied on workers planning an October 30, 2019 strike at its BCN1 warehouse in Barcelona.
The Barcelona strike took place days before another strike in Poland that Motherboard reported was infiltrated by Pinkerton operatives working for Amazon.
The Workers Commission-Spain's largest trade union-has moved to take legal action against Amazon and the Castor & Pollux firm for spying on striking workers at the BCN1 warehouse.
Actions by Amazon and Castor & Polux, the Workers Commission alleges, violate not only the right to strike and freedom of association, but also the right to privacy, protection of data of the workers, and of union delegates of the company.
The union is also pursuing options in Barcelona's special courts such as having a judge force Amazon and Castor & Polux to hand over documents related to the strike, its surveillance, and any follow-up reports.
Another concern the union is raising beyond Amazon or Castor & Polux interfering with the right to strike is that it is illegal in Barcelona for detective investigations to, as an objective, interfere with "An exercise of a fundamental right" nor are they allowed to obtain information from activities that violate such exercises.
Summary Source FAQ Feedback Top keywords: worker#1 strike#2 Amazon#3 Castor#4 spy#5
Post found in /worldnews and /badgovnofreedom.
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2020.11.29 10:18 7OVO7 IT alcuni neofascisti in Italia non riconoscono se stessi

link to the article in English language
ultimamente circola per le strade in Italia questa frase: << non siamo fascisti, siamo di fame >> questa frase si riferisce alle manifestazioni contro il DPCM (volte a contenere l'epidemia di COVID-19).
Si riporta qui la definizione di fascismo data, nel 1921, da colui che ne fu l'ideatore e il capo, Benito Mussolini:
«Il Fascismo è una grande mobilitazione di forze materiali e morali. Che cosa si propone? Lo diciamo senza false modestie: governare la Nazione. Con quale programma? Col programma necessario ad assicurare la grandezza morale e materiale del popolo italiano. Parliamo schietto: non importa se il nostro programma concreto, non è antitetico ed è piuttosto convergente con quello dei socialisti, per tutto ciò che riguarda la riorganizzazione tecnica, amministrativa e politica del nostro Paese. Noi agitiamo dei valori morali e tradizionali che il socialismo trascura o disprezza, ma soprattutto lo spirito fascista rifugge da tutto ciò che è ipoteca arbitraria sul misterioso futuro.»
(Benito Mussolini, 19 agosto 1921 - Diario della Volontà)
fonte: Wikipedia (italiano) - Fascismo

in breve, i quattro punti fondamentali:

(i miei commenti sui punti in formato corsivo)
tutti qui in Italia, (o è come se lo fossero tutti, poiché gli altri lasciano libertà, e quindi non interagiscono né contro né a favore di alternative di vita), anche chi non si professa neofascita, impiega materiale e forze morali contro chi vuole una vita diversa, uno stile di vita diverso
il governo in questo mondo, così come in Italia, è diviso in più parti: ruoli, leggi, contratti, proprietà, e simili a queste; queste parti sono imposte e difese con l'aiuto delle forze dell'ordine e dei militari, come in qualsiasi altra nazione. molti non sono governanti (ruoli governativi e leggi emanate dal governo), ma fanno parte del governo con contratti e proprietà, e professano di garantire qualcosa di migliore, più grande, più funzionante
non discutono, non ragionano, il loro (loro: quelli che non si professano neofascisti, perché pensano che basti togliersi saluto romano simboli fasti e divisa per non esserlo) il loro "discorso" qui in Italia è: abbiamo ragione indipendentemente da ciò che decidiamo e facciamo, siamo migliori, siamo più giusti e migliori, non importa quale sia il nostro programma
qui in Italia la morale e i valori sono così eccessivi che qualsiasi comportamento di qualsiasi persona può essere suscettibile di opposizione da parte dei propri concittadini, citando valori e inadempienze; molte volte accusano maleducazione e mancanza di rispetto dei valori, solo perché vogliono aggredire, provocare e infastidire chi è ritenuto sbagliato, inadatto (che non fa i loro interessi)\* ; e questo determina anche il favore e le possibilità che ognuno ha nella nazione, riguardo a progetti e proposte
* aggiungo: quelli che non fanno i loro interessi, non sono contro i loro interessi, non ostacolano i loro interessi, soltanto non sostengono i loro interessi!
vista dall'esterno l'Italia, non è cone vissuta internamente; come ogni altra nazione propagandista, imboglia e finge di non essere quello che è veramente. i miei compatrioti (solo una vecchia parola, questo post è attuale, 2020 Gregoriano) sono di tre tipi in questo discorso:
  1. fascisti a tutti gli effetti, ma che non ammettono di esserlo, quelli che ho descritto nelle frasi in corsivo sopra;
  2. neofascisti (quelli che manifestano ancora a favore di Mussolini), ecco un esempio ("che fanno loro, non io"): Striscione per Mussolini a Milano, a processo gli ultrà della Lazio per manifestazione fascista
  3. QUELLI COME ME, CHE NON VOGLIONO PIÙ QUESTA MERDA, NÉ QUELLA DI QUELLI, NÉ QUELLA DEGLI ALTRI!
submitted by 7OVO7 to Flagblack [link] [comments]


2020.11.20 23:46 baconscoutaz Beginning Monday, November 30, TUHSD will return to virtual learning.

Update from Superintendent Mendivil

November 20, 2020
Dear TUHSD Parents and Families,
As I previously shared with you, our District has been carefully monitoring the public health metrics made available by both Maricopa County and the Arizona Department of Health Services. These metrics have guided our decision making from the very beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Beginning Monday, November 30, TUHSD will return to virtual learning. We remain mindful of our responsibility to keep our entire community safe - from students to teachers to staff and their respective families. Please know that we do not take this decision lightly and that we are continuing to focus on delivering quality instruction in the virtual environment. Additionally, Tempe Elementary and Kyrene have made decisions to return to virtual instruction as a result of their metrics, which we share. The level of collaboration with our sister districts has always been a priority, especially in situations like this one.
Report courtesy of Maricopa County Department of Public Health. Dashboard available here. Additional factors we have taken into consideration include:

We know you will have questions, and as plans develop and are shared, we will do our best to answer them. This includes planning for athletics & extra curricular activities. Here are a few that we can currently address:

We understand that this is a difficult time for so many of our families. As a reminder, there are resources online to assist you and your families, including a list of social emotional wellness resources (available here). Please make sure to utilize them, and reach out to the support teams at your school site for additional information and resources.
Thank you for your continued support,
Dr. Kevin J. Mendivil Superintendent
Estimados padres y familias de TUHSD:
Como dije anteriormente, nuestro Distrito ha estado monitoreando cuidadosamente las métricas de salud pública disponibles tanto por el Condado de Maricopa como por el Departamento de Servicios de Salud de Arizona. Estas métricas han guiado nuestra toma de decisiones desde el comienzo de la pandemia de COVID-19.
A partir del lunes 30 de noviembre, TUHSD volverá al aprendizaje virtual. Seguimos conscientes de nuestra responsabilidad de mantener segura a toda nuestra comunidad, desde los estudiantes hasta los maestros, el personal y sus respectivas familias. Tenga en cuenta que no tomamos esta decisión a la ligera y que continuamos enfocándonos en brindar instrucción de calidad en el entorno virtual. Además, la Primaria Tempe y Kyrene han tomado decisiones para regresar a la instrucción virtual como resultado de sus métricas, que compartimos. El nivel de colaboración con nuestros distritos hermanos siempre ha sido una prioridad, especialmente en situaciones como esta.
Informe cortesía del Departamento de Salud Pública del Condado de Maricopa.
Los factores adicionales que hemos tenido en cuenta incluyen: Estudiantes de TUHSD en cuarentena Si bien nuestro recuento de casos positivos se ha mantenido bajo, hemos visto un aumento en los informes en las últimas dos semanas y, a la fecha, casi 915 estudiantes y personal han sido aislados o puestos en cuarentena debido a una posible exposición en el campus.
Escasez de sustitutos Un número creciente de empleados experimenta síntomas similares a los de COVID debido a la gripe, resfriados u otros virus. Se requiere que el personal permanezca en casa con CUALQUIER síntoma, y ​​estamos teniendo dificultades extremas para conseguir maestros sustitutos para esas aulas. Pronto, no tendremos suficiente personal para cubrir las clases. Pasar a la contingencia reduce el riesgo de que los profesores se enfermen.
Comportamientos fuera del campus Muchas de nuestras familias han sido diligentes en la práctica de buenos hábitos de seguridad tanto dentro como fuera del campus. Sin embargo, hemos visto varios casos de estudiantes enviados a la escuela con síntomas o mientras esperaban los resultados de la prueba COVID. Estos incidentes ponen en riesgo al personal y a otros estudiantes, además de causar cuarentenas escolares prevenibles.
Modelos de proyección Los modelos actuales predicen un crecimiento exponencial de los casos de COVID-19 durante las próximas semanas, proyectando hasta 250,000 casos positivos diarios en los EE. UU. Con 3,000-5,000 muertes por día. Una mayor propagación en la comunidad se traduce en casos de COVID positivos más altos en los campus, recuentos más altos de cuarentena y mayor riesgo para todos.
Sabemos que tendrá preguntas y, a medida que los planes se desarrollen y se compartan, haremos todo lo posible para responderlas. Esto incluye la planificación de actividades deportivas y extracurriculares. Aquí hay algunos que podemos abordar actualmente:
¿Cuánto tiempo permaneceremos en modo virtual? Nuestras decisiones siempre se guían por las métricas de salud pública. Continuaremos monitoreando las métricas, sin importar el modo de instrucción que estemos ofreciendo, y llevaremos a los estudiantes de regreso al campus cuando las métricas indiquen que es seguro hacerlo nuevamente.
¿Qué significa esto para mi estudiante que se encuentra actualmente en modo híbrido? Su estudiante cambiará a la instrucción virtual. La próxima semana se distribuirá información adicional sobre los horarios de las campanas y otros detalles.
¿Qué significa esto para mi alumno que ya está en modo virtual? No habrá un cambio sustancial para los estudiantes que ya están en modo virtual. Verán a todos sus compañeros unirse a clase desde casa. La próxima semana se distribuirá información adicional sobre los horarios de las campanas y otros detalles.
¿Qué significa esto para mi estudiante con necesidades especiales o de alto riesgo? Los servicios de apoyo en el lugar estarán disponibles para los estudiantes que caen en categorías prioritarias, de conformidad con la Orden Ejecutiva original del Gobernador Doug Ducey. Consulte aquí para obtener más información sobre los servicios de apoyo en el lugar y los estudiantes que califican.
Entendemos que este es un momento difícil para muchas de nuestras familias. Como recordatorio, hay recursos en línea para ayudarlo a usted y a sus familias, incluida una lista de recursos de bienestar social y emocional (disponible aquí). Asegúrese de utilizarlos y comuníquese con los equipos de apoyo de su escuela para obtener información y recursos adicionales.
Gracias por su continuo apoyo,
Dr. Kevin J. Mendivil Superintendente
submitted by baconscoutaz to Tempe [link] [comments]


2020.10.29 05:51 Likes_Your_Name Biden can't win Florida at this rate.

Based on this video and my data dumping shit all over this subreddit: https://twitter.com/jakejakeny/status/1320802361447796736
Florida is publishing every 20 minutes or so, updates on where it is with early voting.
https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
They don't tell us who they're voting for, but they list ballots submitted by registered Republicans, Democrats, Other and NPA's (Independents).

The media has convinced Democrats voting in person is dangerous. It is well known that there has been a push for voting by mail. This has been apparently effective on Democrats, not so much for Republicans.
62% of Democratic, 28% of Republican voters plan to vote early
https://news.gallup.com/poll/321602/extreme-partisan-gaps-early-voting-emerge-year.aspx
This is an incredibly obvious trend that shows up in every poll. Everyone knows Democrats will favor vote by mail, and Republicans will favor voting on Election Day. The most common ratio I see is 2:1 for Democrats and Republicans at vote by mail and that goes higher depending on the poll and battleground state.
63% of Democrats believe voting in person is dangerous. Given these priors, it seems exceedingly unlikely that Democrats are inclined to go out and vote during Election Day. Joe Biden must get the majority of Democrats to vote by mail - which they supposedly will according to the polls.
https://www.axios.com/axios-ipsos-coronavirus-index-in-person-campaigning-50124c22-1163-4a6e-b45a-af1acc7ca337.html
Why it matters: Joe Biden’s campaign, and Democrats nationwide, are eager to press the case that President Trump has mishandled the pandemic — but the pandemic is also causing Democratic voters to turn away from the tools and traditions that typically form the backbone of a successful campaign.
Here's a recent +2 Biden CBS news poll from the 23rd to 25th with 1228 likely voters.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/12YvPqiTHtWdC4CnV0zAtNtvj7_QO-mr9/view
44% of Democrats "Definitely will vote", and 40% of Democrats "already voted by mail or absentee". Republicans with 63% of "Definitely will vote" and 24% of "Already voted by mail or absentee". Notice how I am not relying on the polls (because I don't believe in them) but am relying on a very clear trend that appears in every poll to make my point.
The problem? Democrats don't currently have a 2:1 vote by mail advantage. So either the polls are wrong and one side is shitting the bed, OR the polls are right and we're witnessing low Democrat turnout - despite a predicted overall high turnout election. Now some might say looking into early votes is a poor thing to do in an election and it usually is; but this election is different because voting intention differed very little between Democrats and Republicans in previous elections and the early votes were a small percentage of the overall total vote. But since we have certain key identifiable trends in early voting data, it makes it more reliable in a way to infer Election Day voting.
https://www.hawkfish.us/early-vote-florida/fl-102720
It's possible that there could be heavy crossover from Republicans going to Joe Biden and vice versa or Independents could favor Dems but that's not likely to budge it. Splits from CBS and Big Data Poll are 5-6% and 4-8% (favoring Dems) and a 2-3 point Independent lean for Democrats.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EK7jyCshHv-0UKNDxEehTMn20qL1kwngYI-b6ua6SBo/edit#gid=548027549

Well the kicker is that since we can track votes by county, we can track VBM as they come in and we can also track how well certain counties were doing in 2016 to now at the same time with early voting! Using the advantage map by @DataRepublican we can actually see how counties are performing compared with 2016.
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
So let's look at Miami-Dade right now. A million votes in that county and Clinton won it by 30 points for a net 290k votes in 2016. It's performing VBM to 47% Democrat and 25.85% Republican - not bad for VBM strategy right? Well, if that's the plurality of Democrat voters it's not, because Miami-Dade is now underperforming in percentage compared to Republicans in early voting once early in-person was added. Which means that since Democrats aren't early in-person voting against Republican numbers, and Republicans are going to outnumber Democrats on Election Day by somewhere between 1.2 to 1.5 based on conservative and generous estimates. Which when you scale that up to a million votes, Republicans get a +200k bonus. It's becoming increasingly more probable that Trump is going to outperform his 2016 Florida win. It's not surprising to Republicans given that the Democrat voter registration edge is at it's lowest point in history at 183,596 when it was previously 337,187 and Trump only won Florida by 1.2% (113k votes). The hard data shows that Trump is incredibly competitive in Florida that he's scratching off significant shares of votes in Blue counties, that any minor crossover vote or independent lean or loss of the "white vote" will be overcome through his gains in Hispanics. Republicans are currently outperforming early in-person votes at a ratio of 1.36.
Why is he doing so well in Miami-Dade now? Well it's because of Cubans and Venezuelans. I told people on this subreddit that Trump was making historic gains in the Hispanic vote for the GOP.
an online study Binder conducted in August for the Venezuelan news site El Diario found that 66 percent of Venezuelan voters in Florida intend to vote for Trump. Even 53 percent of Venezuelans who describe themselves as Democrats said they will vote for him.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/19/venezuela-trump-florida-magazolano-voter-429443
https://www.npr.org/2020/05/20/858347477/money-tracker-how-much-trump-and-biden-have-raised-in-the-2020-election
Miami-Dade has Trump at $6.8 million to Biden's $7.6 million. It doesn't matter how much crossover, or white vote Trump loses if he's scratching off valuable points in these highly populated Urban counties. Broward county? 290k net votes for Hillary on a 35 point win. Biden isn't going to get those numbers this year. Trump has raised $5 million from that county compared to Biden's $3 million.
There's going to be a higher turnout in Florida than 2016, but it's not going to favor Democrats. The only problem here is if Republicans basically don't show up to the polls to counter the Democrat early and mail vote (which has been consistently decreasing since early in-person votes started).

https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/politics/522939-early-voting-trends-show-democrats-falling-short-in-3-of-4
Article I found recently. Yes folks, people have been looking at the actual hard data that is current early votes because it is more significant this election than any previous election. The data does not lean Democrat.
In Florida, much has been made of Democrats flipping the early voting edge this year by outvoting Republicans 1,926,055 to 1,463,281 so far. However, that 57 percent of the partisan share is well short of the 70 percent they need to beat expected Republican turnout. Democrats' early voting across the state is actually falling well short of what they would need to win if they lose Election Day 31 percent to 69 percent. Again, the advantage goes to Republicans in Florida.
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2020.10.26 00:43 guillepaez Resumen Semanal de Noticias IX

Hola y bienvenidos al Resumen Semanal de noticias número 9. Damos las gracias a GeneracionX por esos cafecitos de la semana pasada.
Si no quieren leer acá está el video en youtube
Arrancamos con el SÁBADO de la Lealtad Peronista:
DOMINGO:
LUNES:
MARTES:
Si les está gustando este resumen no se olviden de suscribirse y dejar un like.
MIÉRCOLES:
JUEVES:
VIERNES:
Cerramos el resumen con los números de la pandemia:
Como es costumbre queremos dar las gracias por toda la buena onda que nos mandan. Si quieren darnos una mano pueden hacernos una donación mediante cafecitos o simplemente compartiendo este video que eso nos ayuda a crecer. Muchas gracias por todo.
Chao.
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2020.10.23 10:20 bbvedf ICX

ICX
https://preview.redd.it/aebptrdb0tu51.png?width=601&format=png&auto=webp&s=a7e88809ff7782efeea1dfcdbc143ee028b42e39
ICX la moneda. ICON la blockchain.
Ya dejamos caer algo sobre este proyecto cuando hablamos de Stakin. Veamos que dice Coinmarketcap:
ICON is a decentralized blockchain network focused on interoperability. With ICON’s “blockchain transmission protocol”, independent blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum can connect and transact with each other. This opens up cross-chain use cases that are impossible without an interoperability layer like ICON. ICON Network describes itself as a general-purpose blockchain protocol based on the native cryptocurrency ICX that can run smart contracts, adopt the BFT-DPoS (Delegated Proof-of-Stake) consensus protocol, and use an economic-governance protocol called DPoC (Delegated Proof-of-Contribution). The ICON Network is powered by a proprietary blockchain engine called ‘loopchain’ and has the ability to handle hundreds of transactions per second. The ICON project was started to ensure the integrity and transparency of data shared between institutions and companies, and to move mutual assets on heterogeneous blockchains without a centralized organization. In the long term, ICON Network aims to become an ‘interchain‘ that connects multiple blockchains based on BTP technology. The ICON blockchain is powered by loopchain, a blockchain engine designed by ICONLOOP. ICONLOOP is responsible for loopchain’s government and enterprise adoption in South Korea. Loopchain is the Seoul Metropolitan Government’s standard blockchain platform.
Durante mucho tiempo se ha hablado de ICON como el Ethereum coreano. En efecto, tiene sus similitudes principalmente con los smart contracts. Sin embargo ICON va un poco más allá con tres factores clave:
  • Interconexión de cadenas. Sólo yo veo interesante este punto? Comunicar blockchains de cualquier moneda sin tener que recurrir a los warp ni a otro tipo de tokens. No es algo realmente novedoso, ni tampoco realmente implantado o utilizado. Y no entiendo por qué. A mí me parece un pepinazo.
  • Plataforma ofical del gobierno de Corea del Sur. Esto tampoco es nada común. Quieras que no da seguridad y visión a futuro, y abre la puerta a inversores temerosos.
  • Comisiones: Ridículas en comparación con ETH. Juraría que incluso las transferencias son también más rápidas …
Como siempre decimos, mejor no implica directamente mayor adopción. Actualmente ICX está en el puesto 70 de liquidez, con una capitalización de unos 180M$ y un volumen diario de unos 10M$. Datos muy alejados de la cabeza.
En cuanto el funcionamiento a bajo nivel, usuarios y demás, es bastante parecido a Tron: Puedes congelar tus monedas, votar por representantes, obtener un rendimiento por ello, … Googleando he encontrado esta guía, muy recomendable (aunque está en inglés).
Volviendo a la competición, no sabría decir cuál de ellas estableció el modelo. Ambas comenzarion su ICO en 2017 con apenas 20 días de diferencia, pero apuesto a que fue Tron el que copió a Icon 🙄
A nivel usuario, todo la operativa es bastante sencilla e intuitiva. Añadiría que muy agradable visualmente, mucho más cuidado y con más detalle que cualquiera de las aplicaciones de Tron.
https://preview.redd.it/id3t2gwd0tu51.png?width=1320&format=png&auto=webp&s=c85d4a0e87f58c71d14bff636703f8e71ffb5098
Más info sobre el proyecto: https://icon.foundation/
Desde esa propia página tendrás acceso al resto de recursos: Webwallet, explorer, whitepaper, …
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2020.10.22 23:43 AdrianCuba Cuba. Covid19. October 22. Starting the week..NOTE: 53 new cases. One new death.

Cuba. Covid19. October 22. Starting the week..NOTE: 53 new cases. One new death.
data report: 21.10.2020. 11.59 p.m.
By provinces: Pinar del Rio ( 38 ), La Habana ( 4 -1 ), Sancti Spiritus (10 ) Ciego de Avila ( 1 )
Analysis: Increasing the average. Pinar del Rio (more western province, adopted new restrictions)
Total cases in October: 751 ( 35.76 promedio diario) Incrementándose.
(below, between parenthesis, growth or decrease compared to the previous day)
New Deaths: 1 ( 128 total. 1.99 % of total cases )
New cases: 53 ( 6421 total, 420 actually )
Critical: 2 ( -1 ) less critical but in danger: 3 ( 0 )
Recently discharged from hospital: 57 ( 5871 total 91.43 % total cases)
At hospital, by suspicion: 626 (64+ )
Under surveillance: 2217 ( -96 )
Samples analyzed: 6798 ( 79+ ) 770140 total
More at https://salud.msp.gob.cu/parte-de-cierre-del-dia-21-de-octubre-a-las-12-de-la-noche/

https://preview.redd.it/hqx87iwtupu51.jpg?width=980&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d386d1ed324fd09f0170c4a8533205c5b73e8fcb
submitted by AdrianCuba to RealCuba [link] [comments]


2020.10.03 07:47 OkLetterhead9 How feminism hurt men.

A feminist asked in this post, how does feminism hurt men:
I do think men face problems that specific to men, but I think it's men's job to fix it. Like spreading different healthy body types for men or showing men how to be vulnerable. It's a problem that a men's movement built by men should solve. I do think feminism has problems but I think it's more racism, classism and ableism being pushed as part of feminism, like how men of color or working class men existing is lumped with actual harassments when women talk about how men make them feel uncomfortable. How do feminists interfere with men building a men's movement that's about helping men?
This is my response:
I do think men face problems that specific to men, but I think it's men's job to fix it. Like spreading different healthy body types for men or showing men how to be vulnerable. It's a problem that a men's movement built by men should solve.
it's man's job to fix it ? why ? why women's problems are the responsibility of all the society but the men's problems are the responsibility of men only.
Isn't that traditional gender roles ? by saying "it's man's job to fix it" you are saying to men just "man up" !
Men's problems need systemic solutions from policy makers.
Showing men how to be vulnerable ? are you saying men are responsible for their own problems because they don't know how to be vulnerable ? that's victim blaming and also supremacy. men know how to be vulnerable. we are not stupid. the problem is that when we are vulnerable we don't get any help. people tell us "man up" (like you just did)
Men show vulnerablity all the time, this is what the men's rights movement is about. but we get demonized for it by feminists, we get called "whiners" "stop playing the victim" "women have it worse" etc etc ..
For example in the US the anti domestic violence bill titled "Violence Against Women Act" and only women get services. this is institutional sexism. this is not the men's job to fix it. this is a civil rights issue. this is OUR job to fix it. yourself included.
Here are some quotes from men who called abuse hotlines, taken fromNational Parent’s organization:
They laughed at me and told me I must have done something to deserve it if it happened at all. Another said: They asked how much I weighed and how much she weighed and then hung up on me...I was told by this agency that I was full of BS. Twelve percent of the hotlines accused the man of being the batterer or responsible for the abuse. One abused man said: They told me women don't commit domestic violence -- it must have been my fault. Another said: They accused me of trying to hide my "abuse" of her by claiming to be a victim, and they said that I was nothing more than a wimp. Of the men who sought help by contacting local domestic violence programs, only 10% found them to be "very helpful," whereas 65% found them to be "not at all helpful." One abused man said: They just laughed and hung up the phone. Another said: They didn't really listen to what I said. They assumed that all abusers are men and said that I must accept that I was the abuser. They ridiculed me for not leaving my wife, ignoring the issues about what I would need to do to protect my six children and care for them.
Stop telling men that's their job to fix the problems, stop victim blaming, admit that institutional sexism against exist. accept that if you are pro equality it's your job to fix the problems.
" It's the same way in our healthcare system, men die on average 5 years younger than women, they die more frequently of most of the top killer diseases. we have several national offices for women's health and we have nothing for men. if that's not bigotry. if that's not real deadly sexism, i don't know what is ! " Paul Elam
This is how feminism hurt men, by victim blaming men and denying the existence is institutional sexism against men.
I do think feminism has problems but I think it's more racism, classism and ableism being pushed as part of feminism, like how men of color or working class men existing is lumped with actual harassments when women talk about how men make them feel uncomfortable.
Saying men make them feel uncomfortable is not racism or classism. it is misandry. dislike of, contempt for, or ingrained prejudice against men.
I see feminists say that men (ALL MEN not jus men of color or working class ) make them feel uncomfortable.
This is why men's issues and men's rights are ignored, because you make them look as racial or class issue when in reality it's gender issue (men's issue) for example police brutality: 96% of the victims are men, 86% of the homeless are men (read this instagram post for more)
This is how feminism hurt men, by making men's issues invisible. by reclassifying male problems into other categories: social, racial, class, immigration, etc
As explain Daniel Jimenez in "Dehumanizing the male" (read the book review here) :
Female problems are gendered, but male problems are not. Previously we talked about workplace fatalities. Well, if you read this article in the newspaper ElDiario.es you will realize that data segregated by sex is not provided. The article refers to “dead people” or “workers”. If you read it in Europa Press the same thing happens. But if you read it on RTVE and you have the patience to reach exactly the end of the last paragraph, you will find the sex segregation. Imagine that the numbers of male and female workers killed was the opposite (that is, 602 dead women and 50 men), do you think the media treatment would have been the same? Do you think that society’s and social agents’ response would have been the same? (that is, none) As Daniel repeats throughout the book, there is no gender spinning for men’s problems. If a problem or violence affects primarily women, it is a gendered problem, but the opposite does not happen.
You ask:
How do feminists interfere with men building a men's movement that's about helping men?
in different ways for example by insisting that the conversation on gender equality focus exclusively on women's rights and never men's rights. by insisting that the conversation on sexism focus exclusively on misogyny and never misandry. for example:
A proposal at Simon Fraser University (near Vancouver) to open up a men’s centre on campus (to address issues like suicide, addiction, and negative stereotypes) was opposed by the existing women’s centre. Their alternative suggestion was a “male allies project” to “bring self-identified men together to talk about masculinity and its harmful effects”. Author Warren Farrell went to give a talk on the boys’ crisis (boys dropping out of school and committing suicide at higher rates) at the University of Toronto, but he was opposed by protesters who “barricaded the doors, harassed attendees, pulled fire alarms, chanted curses at speakers and more”. Opposition included leaders in the student union. Three students at Ryerson University (also in Toronto) tried to start a men’s issues club. They were blocked by the student union, which associated the idea with supposed “anti-women’s rights groups” and dismissed the idea of sexism against men as an “oppressive concept”. The union passed a motion saying it rejects “Groups, meetings events or initiatives [that] negate the need to centre women’s voices in the struggle for gender equity”. Professor Janice Fiamengo tried to give a talk in Ottawa on men’s issues, only to be interrupted by students shouting, blasting horns, and pulling the fire alarm. Christian Hoff Sommers (known for her conservative/individualist/libertarian perspective on gender issues) gave a talk at Oberlin College in Ohio. Activists hung up posters identifying the names of those who invited her as “supporters of rape culture”. A student at Durham University in England was affected by the suicide of a close male friend, and so he tried to open up a “male human rights society” on campus. His proposal was rejected by the Societies Committee as “controversial”, and he was told he could only have a men’s group as a branch of the Feminist Society on campus. Journalist Cathy Young spoke at Saint Paul University (part of the University of Ottawa) in September 2015, on the topics of campus gender politics, GamerGate, neglect of men’s issues, and focusing on women’s victimization (for sexual violence and cyber-bullying). Masked protesters called her “rape apologist scum” and pulled the fire alarm. In 2015, the University of York announced its intention to observe International Men’s Day. A torrent of criticism ensued, including an open letter to the university claiming that such a day “does not combat inequality, but merely amplifies existing, structurally imposed, inequalities”. The university cancelled the plans and affirmed that “the main focus of gender equality work should continue to be on the inequalities faced by women”. In contrast, its observation of International Women’s day a few months earlier was a week long affair with more than 100 events.
This is how feminism hurt men, by saying any talk about men's rights is hate speech. and men are only allowed to talk about how being a "man is trash" ! and by saying masculinity is harmful. just like the nazis said jewishness is harmful feminists are saying the exact same thing on our identity as men and boys.
For more watch the red pill documentary.
And watch this video.
submitted by OkLetterhead9 to ProMaleCollective [link] [comments]


2020.10.03 07:41 OkLetterhead9 How feminism hurt men.

A feminist asked in this post, how does feminism hurt men:
I do think men face problems that specific to men, but I think it's men's job to fix it. Like spreading different healthy body types for men or showing men how to be vulnerable. It's a problem that a men's movement built by men should solve.
I do think feminism has problems but I think it's more racism, classism and ableism being pushed as part of feminism, like how men of color or working class men existing is lumped with actual harassments when women talk about how men make them feel uncomfortable.
How do feminists interfere with men building a men's movement that's about helping men?
This is my response:

I do think men face problems that specific to men, but I think it's men's job to fix it. Like spreading different healthy body types for men or showing men how to be vulnerable. It's a problem that a men's movement built by men should solve.
it's man's job to fix it ? why ? why women's problems are the responsibility of all the society but the men's problems are the responsibility of men only.
Isn't that traditional gender roles ? by saying "it's man's job to fix it" you are saying to men just "man up" !
Men's problems need systemic solutions from policy makers.
Showing men how to be vulnerable ? are you saying men are responsible for their own problems because they don't know how to be vulnerable ? that's victim blaming and also supremacy. men know how to be vulnerable. we are not stupid. the problem is that when we are vulnerable we don't get any help. people tell us "man up" (like you just did)
Men show vulnerablity all the time, this is what the men's rights movement is about. but we get demonized for it by feminists, we get called "whiners" "stop playing the victim" "women have it worse" etc etc ..
For example in the US the anti domestic violence bill titled "Violence Against Women Act" and only women get services. this is institutional sexism. this is not the men's job to fix it. this is a civil rights issue. this is OUR job to fix it. yourself included.
Here are some quotes from men who called abuse hotlines, taken fromNational Parent’s organization:
They laughed at me and told me I must have done something to deserve it if it happened at all.
Another said: They asked how much I weighed and how much she weighed and then hung up on me...I was told by this agency that I was full of BS.
Twelve percent of the hotlines accused the man of being the batterer or responsible for the abuse. One abused man said:
They told me women don't commit domestic violence -- it must have been my fault.
Another said: They accused me of trying to hide my "abuse" of her by claiming to be a victim, and they said that I was nothing more than a wimp.
Of the men who sought help by contacting local domestic violence programs, only 10% found them to be "very helpful," whereas 65% found them to be "not at all helpful." One abused man said:
They just laughed and hung up the phone.
Another said: They didn't really listen to what I said. They assumed that all abusers are men and said that I must accept that I was the abuser. They ridiculed me for not leaving my wife, ignoring the issues about what I would need to do to protect my six children and care for them.

Stop telling men that's their job to fix the problems, stop victim blaming, admit that institutional sexism against exist. accept that if you are pro equality it's your job to fix the problems.
" It's the same way in our healthcare system, men die on average 5 years younger than women, they die more frequently of most of the top killer diseases. we have several national offices for women's health and we have nothing for men. if that's not bigotry. if that's not real deadly sexism, i don't know what is ! " Paul Elam
This is how feminism hurt men, by victim blaming men and denying the existence is institutional sexism against men.

I do think feminism has problems but I think it's more racism, classism and ableism being pushed as part of feminism, like how men of color or working class men existing is lumped with actual harassments when women talk about how men make them feel uncomfortable.
Saying men make them feel uncomfortable is not racism or classism. it is misandry. dislike of, contempt for, or ingrained prejudice against men.
I see feminists say that men (ALL MEN not jus men of color or working class ) make them feel uncomfortable.
This is why men's issues and men's rights are ignored, because you make them look as racial or class issue when in reality it's gender issue (men's issue) for example police brutality: 96% of the victims are men, 86% of the homeless are men (read this instagram post for more)
This is how feminism hurt men, by making men's issues invisible. by reclassifying male problems into other categories: social, racial, class, immigration, etc
As explain Daniel Jimenez in "Dehumanizing the male" (read the book review here) :

Female problems are gendered, but male problems are not. Previously we talked about workplace fatalities. Well, if you read this article in the newspaper ElDiario.es you will realize that data segregated by sex is not provided. The article refers to “dead people” or “workers”. If you read it in Europa Press the same thing happens. But if you read it on RTVE and you have the patience to reach exactly the end of the last paragraph, you will find the sex segregation. Imagine that the numbers of male and female workers killed was the opposite (that is, 602 dead women and 50 men), do you think the media treatment would have been the same? Do you think that society’s and social agents’ response would have been the same? (that is, none) As Daniel repeats throughout the book, there is no gender spinning for men’s problems. If a problem or violence affects primarily women, it is a gendered problem, but the opposite does not happen.
You ask:

How do feminists interfere with men building a men's movement that's about helping men?
in different ways for example by insisting that the conversation on gender equality focus exclusively on women's rights and never men's rights. by insisting that the conversation on sexism focus exclusively on misogyny and never misandry. for example:

A proposal at Simon Fraser University (near Vancouver) to open up a men’s centre on campus (to address issues like suicide, addiction, and negative stereotypes) was opposed by the existing women’s centre. Their alternative suggestion was a “male allies project” to “bring self-identified men together to talk about masculinity and its harmful effects”.
Author Warren Farrell went to give a talk on the boys’ crisis (boys dropping out of school and committing suicide at higher rates) at the University of Toronto, but he was opposed by protesters who “barricaded the doors, harassed attendees, pulled fire alarms, chanted curses at speakers and more”. Opposition included leaders in the student union.
Three students at Ryerson University (also in Toronto) tried to start a men’s issues club. They were blocked by the student union, which associated the idea with supposed “anti-women’s rights groups” and dismissed the idea of sexism against men as an “oppressive concept”. The union passed a motion saying it rejects “Groups, meetings events or initiatives [that] negate the need to centre women’s voices in the struggle for gender equity”.
Professor Janice Fiamengo tried to give a talk in Ottawa on men’s issues, only to be interrupted by students shouting, blasting horns, and pulling the fire alarm.
Christian Hoff Sommers (known for her conservative/individualist/libertarian perspective on gender issues) gave a talk at Oberlin College in Ohio. Activists hung up posters identifying the names of those who invited her as “supporters of rape culture”.
A student at Durham University in England was affected by the suicide of a close male friend, and so he tried to open up a “male human rights society” on campus. His proposal was rejected by the Societies Committee as “controversial”, and he was told he could only have a men’s group as a branch of the Feminist Society on campus.
Journalist Cathy Young spoke at Saint Paul University (part of the University of Ottawa) in September 2015, on the topics of campus gender politics, GamerGate, neglect of men’s issues, and focusing on women’s victimization (for sexual violence and cyber-bullying). Masked protesters called her “rape apologist scum” and pulled the fire alarm.
In 2015, the University of York announced its intention to observe International Men’s Day. A torrent of criticism ensued, including an open letter to the university claiming that such a day “does not combat inequality, but merely amplifies existing, structurally imposed, inequalities”. The university cancelled the plans and affirmed that “the main focus of gender equality work should continue to be on the inequalities faced by women”. In contrast, its observation of International Women’s day a few months earlier was a week long affair with more than 100 events.
This is how feminism hurt men, by saying any talk about men's rights is hate speech. and men are only allowed to talk about how being a "man is trash" ! and by saying masculinity is harmful. just like the nazis said jewishness is harmful feminists are saying the exact same thing on our identity as men and boys.
For more watch the red pill documentary.
And watch this video.
submitted by OkLetterhead9 to LeftWingMaleAdvocates [link] [comments]


2020.09.22 15:59 luigislowhand Consejos para buscar trabajo afuera (o tambien, aca)

Buenas Gente!
Bueno, viendo que todos están con ganas de irse, y para que no terminen siendo un meme, y de verdad puedan irse (o intenten), se me ocurrió buscar información sobre portales de empleo de distinto lugares, incluido Argentina, para los que busquen cambiar y no tengan la posibilidad de hacerlo afuera.
Estuve investigando y hablando con conocidos, y logre hacer una recopilación de distintos sitios donde pueden empezar a aplicar.
Algunas recomendaciones previas:
- LinkedIn: Ya lo conocen, mi recomendación siempre es tener un perfil lo más completo posible; completar la info sobre los proyectos/laburos que hicieron; para los developers, no olviden linkear su github, o portfolio. Por otro lado, está bueno seguir empresas para las que les interese trabajar; también conectarse con recruiters de estas empresas (o de cualquier empresa del rubro, para el caso), y no duden en mandarles invite, un mensajito de presentación o adjuntarles su CV. (1) Tampoco olviden de tener su perfil en otro(s) idioma(s). Linkedin te da la opción de tenerlo en distintos idiomas, sin tener que tener otro perfil. Esto sirve para cuando alguien que tiene su propio linkedin configurado en inglés y hace una búsqueda, le aparezca tu perfil.
- Sites de empresas: Casi todas las empresas, grandes o chicas, tienen su sección de "trabaja con nosotros" o Careers, donde postean directamente sus vacantes, o tienen un mail de contacto para que envíen sus datos.
Bolsa de trabajo de universidades: Tooodas hasta la mas pedorra tiene bolsa de trabajo para que puedan aplicar.
- Google: Google también funciona como un agregador / integrador de job posts. O sea, pueden buscar directamente en google y los lleva a las ofertas (buscando trabajo, los lleva a la sección de búsquedas)
- Grandes agencias: Manpower, Addecco, Randstat y sus subsidiarias de tecnología (ExperisIT, por ej) funcionan en todo el mundo, y siempre tienen puestos para todos los gustos. Obvio, trabajas para ellos, no para el cliente.
- VanHack: Muchos laburos en CA y Europa, con relocation. Postean directamente las empresas que estan dispuestas a llevarse a alguien.
- Remote OK: Portal con avisos para nómadas digitales. (3)
- Acuerdense de buscar por palabras tipo Remoto/e, Relo/Relocation, si es que buscan trabajo desde acá.

Portales:
Computrabajo.com: El portal funciona en todo latinoamerica. En general tiene muchas ofertas diarias.
Bumeran.com: Es el portal hermano de ZonaJobs y UniversoBit. Originalmente estaban destinados a puestos diferentes, pero en definitiva, terminaron cayendo en las empresas poniendo los mismos posteos en los dos portales. En algunos países puede cambiar de nombre (Laborum, en Chile, por ej.)
BuscoJobs.com: Similar a computrabajo.
Indeed.com: Funciona en casi todo el mundo. Se usa mucho en Canadá y EEUU, también en Europa.
Opcion Empleo / Career Jet: Otra web que funciona mucho en todo el mundo.
Glassdoor: No sirve solo para ver cuánto gana tu compañero, en varios países se lo usa como una buena opción para publicar búsquedas
SimplyHired: Otro portal que se usa mucho en Canadá, pero tiene versiones de varios países.

Bolsa Nacional de Empleos
Trabajando.cl
Chiletrabajos.cl
Empleos EMol: El portal de trabajo del diario El Mercurio.
Empleospublicos.cl: Web que publica ofertas laborales del Estado de muchísimas áreas y de todo Chile, no sólo Santiago.
GetOnBoard: Empleos IT en Chile (5)

Catho
InfoJobs
Empregos
Banco Nacional de Empregos

OCC: aca esta el 90% de los avisos mexicanos que después se replican en otros portales.
Talenteca

MercadoJobs
Jooble
Trabajo Gallito
Accion Trabajo
Smart Talent: para IT (4)

CareerBuilder
Monster; Ojo, al de EEUU, solo pude entrar con VPN
Dice.com: Solo IT

CanadaJobs
Jobs In Canada:
Job Boom
Eluta

InfoJobs: el mas usado por lejos
Monster.Es: la version española de Monster (tambien hay version DE, FR, IT, NL y UK)
TecnoEmpleo: para posiciones IT (2)

Le Bon Coin: con todo tipo de anuncios, incluso de laburo
Agence pour l’Emploi de Cadres
Annonces Emploi
Pole Emploi: Oficina publica de empleos

Total Jobs
Reed
Adzuna
The Guardian Jobs: Portal de The Guardian
Work In Startups

Xing: Red social tipo LinkedIn
Honeypot: Posiciones IT

Subito
Jobbydoo
Generazione Vincente
Human Gest
Lavoropiù
Etjca
(estas 4 últimas son agencias que manejan mucha gente)

Seek
Working In Australia
Gumtree: Es un marketplace que tiene muchos avisos de empleo
Jora: tiene partners mundiales, pero tiene muchos avisos en AU y NZ.
(también existen Au Pair Australia y Find a Babysitter, por si a alguien le interesa, pero seguro son los menos, por lo menos aca en argentina)
(site con info y links)

Workania

Para cerrar, tienen la web y redes sociales de Yo me animo y vos, con mucha mas info para salir de este agujero del demonio hoyito del diablo.
También, no se olviden de visitar las webs de las embajadas y consulados para averiguar sobre programas de working holiday y visados especiales.
Espero les sirva!
DATA EXTRA:
Encontre la web de Expatistan en la que se puede comparar el costo de vida de diferentes lugares, y tiene algo mas de info para investigar.
Otra similar, es Numbeo (7) para comparar el costo de vida
EDIT:
Gracias por los awards :) :) :)
Info agregada, gracias a comentarios de otros users:
  1. gracias u/Parkrover
  2. gracias u/3mpanadas
  3. gracias u/__profesorcocoon
  4. gracias u/MateDrinker1
  5. gracias u/rcanepa
  6. gracias u/lionelum
  7. gracias u/marcosquilla
submitted by luigislowhand to argentina [link] [comments]


2020.08.10 23:49 menem95 Análisis American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL)

Hola, buenas! primero que nada, aclaro que soy medio nuevo en esto (leí varios libros y demás pero no soy ningún especialista). Hace unos días venia leyendo notas de portales y diarios que aconsejaban comprar esta acción, y el hype despertó mi curiosidad, por lo que estos últimos días dedique un rato a hacer mi humilde investigación, para ver que onda. Dejo acá lo que hice, quizás a alguno le sirva. Podrán ver que el approach es puramente análisis fundamental y me base en cosas que aprendí de los libros de Graham y similares, si alguno quiere corregirme cosas (que debe haber varias) o contarme que cosas agregarían a la hora de investigar y analizar empresas estaría muy agradecido.

-American Airlines Inc. (AAL)

American Airlines Group Inc.[1] (conocida como AA o simplemente como “American”) es una corporación basada en Forth Worth TX, EEUU. La acción cotiza bajo el ticker AAL en el NASDAQ a un precio al cierre del 6/8/2020 de $13,04 dólares por acción.
Su principal operación es el transporte aéreo, tanto de personas como de carga. A través tanto de sus aerolíneas propias subsidiarias como de las aerolíneas regionales que operan bajo el nombre de “American Eagle” (tanto propias como 3ros), el Grupo opera un promedio de 6800 vuelos por día a mas de 365 destinos en 61 países. American Airlines tiene un tamaño prominente, es actualmente la aerolínea mas grande del mundo bajo varios parámetros (pasajeros transportados, tamaño de flota etc.). En cuanto a la competencia, en el ámbito doméstico, las rutas son altamente competitivas, aerolíneas como Delta, Frontier, Southwest o United son una fuerte competencia. También compiten con aerolíneas charter y de carga y, sobre todo en segmentos mas cortos transporte terrestre y ferroviario. La competencia de las low cost va in crescendo. Asimismo, AA provee servicio internacional a una variedad de destinos. El grupo tiene una capitalización de mercado de 6632 millones de USD.
Respecto a la posición financiera de la empresa, a junio de 2020, la empresa tiene activos corrientes por 13789M de USD y pasivos corrientes por 18000M de USD (por lo que el current ratio es de 0,766 lo cual representa una mejoría respecto al 0,444 de diciembre 2019). El working capital por lo tanto es negativo, igual a -4211M USD (contra la figura negativa de -10105M de USD para dic-2019). La deuda de largo plazo es de 28698M USD (representando un fuerte incremento contra 21454M USD en dic-2019 y 21179M USD para dic-2018).
Respecto a las ganancias de la compañía. AAL reporto una pérdida de 4308M de USD (1S 2020), contra una ganancia de 847M USD para 1S 2019. Si miramos el historial de ganancias netas de los últimos 10 años, el historial de American Airlines es irregular, tiene 4 años de perdidas (2010-2013), con muy malos prospectos para 2020, no obstante, los últimos 5 años sin contar 2020 (por la situación excepcional del COVID), resultaron en ganancias netas para AA.

Año (ene-dic) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Net Income (M USD) -471 -1979 -1876 -1834 2882 7610 2676 1282 1412 1686
Dif. Anual (%) ------- -320,17 5,2 2,24 257,14 264,05 -64,84 -52,09 10,14 19,41

Si evaluamos la evolución y crecimiento de las ganancias en 10 años, teniendo en cuenta el net income promedio de los últimos 3 años y los primeros 3 años, así como el promedio de las acciones circulantes bajo el mismo criterio, el EPS evolucionó un 151% de -6,12 a un EPS de 3,14.[2] No obstante esta evolución se ve truncada por la crisis que atraviesa actualmente la empresa, bajo la cual, actualmente una acción de AAL tiene un EPS de -8,02. Para el Q2 2020 AAL tiene un EPS de -4,82, mientras que para Q2 2019 había tenido un EPS de 0,67. Anualizado el EPS es de para el ultimo año de -8,07 (con pérdidas estimadas en 3461M para el conjunto de S2 2019 y S1 2020).
La caída de la empresa (y de la industria aeronáutica en general), debido a la crisis del COVID-19 este último trimestre es dramática, American tuvo ingresos por transporte de pasajeros de 11.011M USD en el Q2 2019, que se redujeron a la exigua cifra de 1.108M USD en el Q2 2020, una caída del 90%. En transporte de carga la caída fue inferior (del 41%) pero su incidencia es mínima, ya que paso de 221M USD a 130.
Evaluando un poco mas la fuerza financiera de la empresa, y nos referimos al flujo de efectivo proveniente de operaciones, encontramos que AAL recibió 2295M en el 1S 2020, contra 2335 en 1S 2019 (-1.7%). Evaluando la evolución en 10 años de este parámetro:

Año (ene-dic) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CF de Operaciones (Mill. USD) 1241 743 1285 675 3080 6249 6524 4744 3533 3815
Dif. Anual (%) ------- -40,13 72,95 -47,47 356,3 102,89 4,4 -27,28 -25,53 7,98
Podemos ver en el cuadro que el cash Flow de operaciones evoluciono de forma irregular, si bien se observa un crecimiento sustancial en los últimos años en relación a los primeros. Respecto a la estructura de capital de la empresa, el total capital (deuda de largo plazo + total shareholder equity), al 30 de junio, este valor se encontraba en el orden de los 25529M USD (reportaron stockholder equity negativo por 3169 M de dólares), por lo que la deuda de largo plazo resulta el 112% del total capital. Para peor, hasta 15.134M de la deuda (54%) puede estar sujeta a tasas variables.
Respecto a la política de dividendos, hay registro de pagos constantes de un dividendo de $0,4 (anual) por acción desde al menos 2014.[3] Mirando algunos ratios el P/E, de acuerdo con la ganancia de los últimos 3 años, bajo un precio de $13,04 es de 4,16. Ahora, si consideramos el resultado nefasto del ultimo semestre, el resultado es de -1,62. El Price to Book ratio también es negativo, de -1,76.
Cabe hacer un par de consideraciones y comparaciones en relación al sector en el que el grupo opera, la industria aeronáutica es complicada, el mismísimo Warren Buffett expreso sus reservas a la hora de invertir en aerolíneas (no es que no lo haga, de hecho, Berkshire es uno de los top holders, con el 8,24% al 30/3/2020).[4] Como dijimos, AAL es una empresa líder en el sector, y sus competidores más fuertes son Delta, United, Southwest, y la alemana Lufthansa (entre otros de menor peso). Haciendo una pequeña comparación[5] con estas empresas, American es la que peor EPS tiene a la fecha (TTM), con -8,17 (United, Delta y Lufthansa oscilan entre -5,23 y -6,10, Southwest pudo mantener un EPS positivo con 0,41). El performance de las acciones de estas compañías va en la misma línea, Southwest fue la compañía que menos perdió (-38,35% YTD), contra desempeños en el rango de -47,85% (Lufthansa) y -61,03% (United) de las otras compañías, AAL se ubica en el medio de estas otras compañías con -54,57% de perdida YTD.
Si miramos el current ratio, el 0,77 de American esta en la línea de las demás (Lufthansa tiene 0,54, United 0,61 y Delta 0,94) pero se ve ampliamente superada por el 1,7 que ostenta Southwest. En cuanto a la deuda, American esta en desventaja, tiene deuda neta por casi 30MM USD, mucho mas que cualquier otra empresa en la comparación (la que le sigue es United con 17,39MM). En el margen operativo tambien se la ve en desventaja, ya que tiene un -10,68% de margen, contra márgenes entre el -2,13% (Delta) y -5,18% (Lufthansa) de las otras empresas. El margen neto de beneficios es similar al operativo para American (-10,40%), y en las otras empresas oscila entre -10,74% (Delta) y 0,99% (Southwest). Otro punto de comparación es la nomina salarial de American, dato no menor en estos tiempos de pandemia, ya que esta empresa tiene 133,8 mil empleados, mientras que las otras empresas tienen entre 138,35 mil empleados (Lufthansa) y 60.800 (Southwest).
Respecto al management de la compañía[6], en abril 2020, en atención a la situación excepcional del COVID 19, se decidió reducir en un 55% el salario del presidente (Robert D. Isom) y en 50% el salario de los vicepresidentes y el CEO. Para 2019 la compensación total anual del CEO fue de $11.571.714, mientras que para todos los otros empleados la remuneración anual promedio fue de $61.143. La compensación anual total del CEO se redujo un promedio de 2,5% anual desde 2017 a 2019, mientras que la compensación total de los otros executive officers no mostró cambios significativos, pese a que los ingresos de la empresa crecieron esos años.
Considerando todo esto, será vital la recuperación que se viene en el futuro cercano. Esta recuperación podría iniciar pronto, pero hay indicios de que va a ser lenta. Uno de esos indicios es que el Congreso de EEUU estaría viendo con buenos ojos una extensión del programa de ayuda al pago de salarios (PSP) por otros 6 meses.[7] En ese sentido, el approach de la empresa es claro, se vienen recortes en la plantilla de American, ante el inminente final de la primer edición del PSP en octubre, informándose un potencial recorte de hasta 28000 empleados, incluyendo alrededor de 2500 pilotos.[8] En el futuro turbulento que se viene, un punto positivo es la alta exposición de AAL al mercado domestico (en 2019 de 42010M USD ganados por transporte de pasajeros, 30881M USD, el 74% es en este mercado), que parece que reanudara su actividad mas rápido que las rutas internacionales. La empresa parecería haber relajado sus expectativas de corto plazo y prevé que la capacidad máxima para Agosto estará en el 60% de los niveles de agosto 2019.[9]
A forma de conclusión, es evidente que el sector fue uno de los mas afectados por la pandemia del COVID-19, y no es claro cuando se va a producir ni cuanto va a tardar la recuperación, hay indicios de que va a iniciar pronto,[10] pero es claro que va a ser difícil compensar el impacto provocado por esta crisis. Comparativamente, American no esta en una buena situación, fue (de las empresas que compare) la que mas se endeudo durante la pandemia. No obstante, el motivo por el que analice esta empresa fue que había cierto hype, se incremento el volumen operado de sus acciones, y se empezó a aconsejar su compra en diversos portales especializados.[11] American no deja de ser una compañía altamente endeudada, y los trimestres que viene van a ser críticos para la definición de su futuro (hay analistas que no descartan incluso un concurso preventivo o quiebra).[12] Por todo esto, si se decide apostar a las aerolíneas, quizás sea aconsejable analizar las empresas de la competencia (Southwest sobre todo), para ver mas a fondo sus situaciones particulares y moverse con prudencia.
Fuentes:
Form 10-K (31/12/2019): https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/static-files/d46a00e3-db05-4a91-af7a-fbe0fc2a7f08 (también Form 10-K de años anteriores, presentes en la pagina de IR de AA)
Form 10-Q Q2 2020: https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/static-files/30362e5e-3869-4171-a4c3-80ce327d09dc
Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAL/
Otras fuentes especificadas en los footnotes.

[1] Dado que se presentan estados financieros separados de American Airlines así como de American Airlines Group, salvo aclaración en contrario los datos pertenecen a esta última.
[2] Data de: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAL/american-airlines-group/shares-outstanding
[3] De: https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/aal/dividend-history
[4] De: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-warren-buffett-couldnt-own-airline-stocks-now-and-still-be-a-true-value-investor-2020-07-06
[5] Las comparaciones se hicieron con el screener de TradingView: https://www.tradingview.com/screene
[6] Datos del proxy statement de la reunión anual de accionistas 2020: https://www.proxydocs.com/branding/965250/2020/
[7] Ver https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/08/08/a-payroll-support-extension-for-airlines-seems-inc.aspx y https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/2020/08/07/airline-labor-unions-with-republican-backing-are-poised-for-another-historic-win/#3a177f752698
[8] De https://www.dallasnews.com/business/airlines/2020/08/04/american-airlines-inks-deal-with-pilots-as-it-tries-to-get-more-employees-to-take-leave-and-buyouts/
[9] De https://www.wsj.com/articles/airlines-getting-back-into-formation-for-coming-turbulence-11595521485
[10] Por ejemplo: https://www.forbes.com/sites/grantmartin/2020/08/09/american-airlines-brings-warm-food-back-to-airport-lounges/#24ef2f0764fc
[11] Como https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/08/09/stocks-this-week-buy-american-airlines-and-apple/#566d4b591c66 o también: https://investorplace.com/2020/07/aal-stock-buying-opportunity-below-its-sotp-value/
[12] Por ejemplo https://finance.yahoo.com/news/little-reason-optimism-american-airlines-100144310.html
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2020.07.24 23:40 AntonioZamorano58 Revision de Podcast Chilenos

Aca una pequeña y probablemente equivocado de algunos podcast actuales chilenos que he escuchado, mayormente escribiré sobre los que he escuchado varios episodios o al menos he intentado hacerlo en varias ocaciones :
Tomas va a Morir :
Un podcast de tres amigos de toda la vida que se dedican a comentar distintos temas y anécdotas de su larga amistad, donde el protagonista es el hechicero y humorista Edo Caroe, secundado por su amigo Tomas y un tercero que no recuerdo su nombre. Este podcast a primera oída cumple de sobra su función de entretener, pero para mi gusto se desgasta rápido, se acaba la novedad y comienza a aburrir la constante petulancia de alguno de los protagonistas, la pesadez de Caroe que es la normal se complementa muy bien con el Tomas que es bastante liviano y se toma todo con mayor simpatia, las interacciones de cuando cuentan anécdotas de juventud entre los tres resulta muy simpática. Lo que me causa un poco de vergüenza ajena escuchar, es cuando el tercer muchacho repite en cada capitulo "Es que nosotros en el mundo de la academia..." y lo repite mas que ningún profesor universitario que conozco, salvo que quien lo dice es un muchacho titulado de Turismo Aventura, nada en contra de la carrera, pero suena un poco ridículo que se trate de validar tanto de esta forma. En lo personal como ya decía, me resulto muy entretenido, pero luego ya me aburrió y no lo seguí mas en parte porque a veces se exceden en el intento de ser forzosamente graciosos y por poco no ponen risas grabadas. Le doy tres Jumbitos.
La Ultima Luna
Este es el ultimo Podcast de Felipe Avello en conjunto con dos chicos jóvenes los hermanos Carvajal, que al parecer trabajan con el fuera del mundo del podcast, es un Podcast casi diario donde tratan sobre casi cualquier tema en una conversación de madrugada que si bien es en una clave liviana lindando la comedia, no se trata de hacer reír en forma forzada ni buscar que sus historias sean siempre graciosas ni nada, solo son conversaciones entre amigos. Ahora si esperan al Avello de tierra 2, donde los excesos de comedia, gritos, drogas y alcohol resultaban en algo gracioso (a ratos penoso) esto es todo lo contrario, este es un Avello pasado por cloro, lavado, centrifugado y Sundrydiado, ya bastante mayor supo reinventarse y lo que me resulta tremendamente agradable de este podcast es que no tiene grandes pretensiones y por sobre todo son tipos muy respetuosos entre ellos, no vas a escuchar la mismas tallas donde tratan de viejo a Avello a cada rato, nada de garabatos ni bravatas y si hay algo que no lo saben no tienen temor en decirlo o en equivocarse. Hasta el momento le doy 5 Jumbitos.
Patrialcalmente/Matriarcalmente Hablando
Un Podcast del Cesar de Criticas QLS, se repite la formula de dos amigos de larga data donde comentan de actualidad y de sus años vivencias que en un comienzo me resultaba muy liviano (en el buen sentido) de escuchar el Cesar, un agrado escuchar cuando comentan sus anécdotas de infancia o de los infinitos trabajos por los que ha pasado, si bien muchas veces sus opiniones no son muy certeras y hasta algo recicladas de otras opiniones, Cesar me parecía un tipo bastante humilde y centrado, su amigo de momento que se pone en modo abogado donde nadie más puede opinar y tiene la razón en todo por el solo hecho de hablar mucho y rápido, se vuelve un aburrimiento. El Podcast lo deje de escuchar cuando ya el personaje anti progre y de opiniones provocadoras se comió al Cesar, de pasar a ser un tipo amena, se volvió tremendamente amargado y sumado al personaje Armando, ya no valía la pena seguir escuchando. Le doy 2.5 Jumbitos, mas que nada por el Cesar de Antaño pre amargura (creo que estaba en reddit? )
No soy yo, eres tu.
Una pareja de comediantes Pam Pam y Claudio Merlin (hombre y mujer) de amigos tratan temas de índole sentimental, mayormente fracasos, nuevamente en clave de humor, podcast al cual no se como llegue porque no son temas de mi interés y porque por lo general al tratar estos temas los humoristas siempre lo hacen con un exceso de garabatos porque resulta gracioso (? supongo?), pero en este caso son me resulto gracioso, quizás porque sus anécdotas son lejos romances glamourosos, sino todo lo contrario, una justa cuota de fracasos, humillaciones y también algo de éxitos, pero siempre en romances de mucha plaza, discos de barrio y carretes en casas. Le dare 4 Jumbitos.
La SuperCarretera
El Podcast de Fabricio Copano y el hijo del mítico director de televisión Gonzalo Bertran, Supercarretera viene de un antiguo programa de radio que fue revivido bajo este formato y en varios de sus capítulos cuentan con invitados como Manoel de Tezanos, Mauricio Duran (ex Bunkers), entre otros que se acoplan bien a la dinámica de los conductores. Este Podcast es derechamente de humor y funciona, tienen distintas secciones con grandes cortinas musicales y el tono de niñitos cuicos que nunca lograron superar el colegio privado se soslaya con la simpatía que logran ambos, me resultan muy gracioso de escuchar en su mayor parte, aunque algunas partes de algunos episodios pueden pasar sin pena ni gloria, en general tienen muy buen ritmo ayudado de que es un podcast de poco mas de media hora por lo que no tienen que rellenar en exceso, este no es un podcast para escuchar sus anécdotas y sentirse identificado, mas bien uno se siente excluido y algo resentido de no haber tenido una infancia llena de lujos y como no hacerlo si para uno los recuerdos de verano es ir a quedarse con nuestras abuelas, para ellos son viajar solos a la casa en la playa, pelear entre grupos de amigos en reñaca, carretear con el elenco de viva el lunes, hacer la practica en el festival de viña, de como esta el día en California o animar fiestas del barrio alto ... para esta nueva temporada se le suma un tercer amigo Max Loof (o como se escriba) que es completamente distinto a los dos anteriores y que eso lo hace complementarse bastante bien, porque no son la suma de tres tipos iguales. Muy simpatico Podcast al que le doy 4.5 Jumbitos (solo le resto medio jumbito por resentimiento social de mi parte, muy mal hecho dicho sea de paso).
Lucas y Socias le doy 3.5 Jumbitos buen podcast.
El sentido del humor le doy 2 jumbitos, es necesario tanto garabato?
Ese seria mi revisión llena de faltas de ortografía, pobre gramática , porque la escribí muy a la rápida y con muy poco conocimiento.
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2020.07.08 16:45 matambrito Proyecto de Ley

Gente, voy a dar mis propuestas para organizar este sub y poder ofrecer info a los que quieran fugarse. No soy el usuario mas tradicional de reddit, realmente no me siento tan comodo en muchos subs asi que mis ideas pueden criticarlas, la idea es que sea comodo para todos, no estético para mi.
Lo que creo que necesitamos:
- Conseguir y destacar personas que se hayan ido del país, verificar esta data y clasificar la info que pueden ofrecer
- Definir categorías relevantes: Por ejemplo Pais, Trabajo, Situación actual, Ciudadanías
- Definir un conjunto de pinned post segun las categorías, donde dentro de cada uno se pueda ver la información ordenadamente.
- Designar MODS, gente activa en la comunidad (largo plazo, va a ir surgiendo)
____________________________________
Mi proyecto:
Planeo hacer una comunidad donde los upvotes decidan cuál es la mejor respuesta para cada pregunta. Asi como que los upvotes definan cuales son las preguntas que más van a aportar. Quiero en principio que los posts saquen lo mejor de cada opinion al respecto, que sea organizado gracias a ustedes.
Quiero que haya una main page donde hayan 10 pinned post que ayuden a orientarse a cada persona
Pretendo ir actualizando recurrentemente las respuestas, tener un post diario en el que proponemos "los lunes se revisa tema ciudadanía", y si tiene cierto número de upvotes, se modifica.
Debe existir un post donde se responden preguntas de forma rápida, tratando de que hayan suficientes mod para que esto no se vuelva un callcenter.
____________________________________
Aclaración Final
Critiquen todo lo que no les guste, insisto en que estas son mis ideas, propongan las suyas, voy a estar atento a contestar y discutir el asunto :)
submitted by matambrito to fugazzetarg [link] [comments]


2020.05.28 18:39 MacCohen Come Mark Hofmann approfittò della lotta interna sulla storiografia mormone

Ho letto recentemente un paio di libri molto interessanti scritti da alcuni giornalisti: “A Gathering of Saints: A True Story of Money, Murder, and Deceit” di Robert Lindsey e "Salamander: Story of Mormon Forgery Murders" di Linda Sillitoe e Allen Roberts e ne approfitto per riassumerne gli eventi. Salto la parte sulle investigazioni, ma anche quella è davvero affascinante e raccomando entrambi i libri.
Gli anni ’70 erano un’epoca favolosa per gli storici e gli appassionati di storia della chiesa: nel 1972 Leonard Arrington era il primo uomo a ricoprire il ruolo di storico della chiesa senza essere un’autorità generale e aveva portato con sé una trasparenza e una professionalità che non si erano ancora viste nel dipartimento, arrivando ad aprire gli archivi della chiesa a molti ricercatori. Arrington voleva fare storia a un livello accademico, non ripetere i racconti idealizzati e agiografici che servivano a promuovere la fede scritti fino ad allora: nessuno era perfetto, neanche i dirigenti della chiesa, e c’erano state situazioni brutte e spiacevoli nella loro vita che non erano state raccontate se non da persone ostili alla chiesa e che meritavano di essere trattate. Ad Arrington non fu permesso di pubblicare queste ricerche tramite l’organo ufficiale dell’ufficio dello storico della chiesa, quindi optò per periodici indipendenti dalla chiesa come Dialogue e Sunstone, che fecero fiorire una comunità di storici e appassionati come non c’era mai stata prima. Nelle retrovie si cominciò a parlare senza più tabù dell’uso di pietre divinatorie, della rabdomanzia e di altre credenze magiche praticate da vari fondatori del mormonismo, dell’origine della prima visione, delle cause storiche del divieto del sacerdozio ai neri (divieto rimosso qualche anno dopo, nel 1978), dell’autorizzazione segreta di centinaia di matrimoni plurimi fino al 1907, ben oltre la data ufficiale del 1890, e temi femministi. Molte autorità generali non gradivano affatto il nuovo approccio: quegli storici secondo loro erano dei cavalli di Troia all’interno della chiesa perché non erano interessati a incensare e idealizzare Joseph Smith, Brigham Young e gli altri dirigenti delle origini e rischiavano di far vacillare la fede dei membri con le loro storie poco edificanti di profeti imperfetti. Gli apostoli Mark E. Petersen, Ezra Taft Benson e Boyd K. Packer erano i più critici e usarono anche professori di religione della BYU per sorvegliare i professori di storia e attaccare ottime opere come “The Story of the Latter-Day Saints”, uscito nel 1976 e attaccato per non essere ispirato, non attribuire a Dio o a miracoli le cause di eventi positivi e così via. Col passare degli anni i fondi e il personale del dipartimento di storia vengono tagliati e l’accesso agli archivi diventa sempre più difficile.
Il 6 settembre 1976 Arrington scriverà nel suo diario: “È chiaro che il presidente Benson non starà dalla parte della nostra 'vera' storia. Dato che è il prossimo in linea e anche presidente dei Dodici, siamo in una situazione di impotenza e nessuno vuole prendere in considerazione la nostra logica. […] La domanda ora è se dovrei mantenere l’incarico […] e provare a scrivere storia che sarà approvata dalla Correlazione o se dovrei dimettermi e continuare a scrivere 'storia vera'.” Aggiungerà il 22 settembre: “Gli anziani Benson e [Petersen] … vogliono storie gloriose della restaurazione, non contaminate dalla discussione di problemi pratici e prove controverse. Vogliono profeti senza verruche e rivelazioni in vasi puri direttamente dall’alto. Vogliono storie che promuovano la fede e omelie morali. Sono ostinati e si oppongono a tutti i nostri libri, scritti nel modo in cui capiamo la storia.”
Nel 1980, durante la decadenza di questo periodo, lo studente 25enne Mark Hofmann presenta a un professore della University of Utah una Bibbia d’epoca con un foglio incollato fra due pagine e gli chiede di aiutarlo a rimuoverlo senza danneggiarlo. Estratto il foglio non può credere ai suoi occhi: il foglio è coperto di egiziano riformato e presenta un paragrafo descrittivo scritto da Joseph Smith, quindi sembrerebbe essere quello che Martin Harris aveva portato nel 1828 allo studioso Charles Anthon per verificare la veridicità del Libro di Mormon (Anthon lo avvertirà che era una truffa, ma Harris racconterà tutt’altro con la sua consueta fantasia). Gli studiosi coinvolti vorrebbero il segreto per il momento, ma in realtà sono tutti così elettrizzati che parlandone con amici e colleghi ben presto il documento è sulla bocca di tutti e la Prima Presidenza invita Hofmann a un incontro negli uffici amministrativi. L’apologeta Hugh Nibley dichiarerà sensazionalmente che sia la miglior prova che si possa avere dell’autenticità del Libro di Mormon e che secondo lui potrà essere tradotto; il 3 maggio 1980 il Deseret News pubblica un articolo trionfante sulla scoperta, con tanto di foto del presidente Kimball che esamina il foglio con una lente di ingrandimento. Nel giro di qualche mese la chiesa darà in cambio qualche oggetto raro nei suoi archivi in cambio della lettera e anche l’Ensign di luglio pubblicherò un articolo e foto sul soggetto. Quello che non sanno è che Mark Hofmann non crede più nel mormonismo da tempo e che quel manoscritto è il primo di una lunga lista di falsi che venderà alla chiesa e a ignari collezionisti.
Nel 1981 arriva una spiacevole sorpresa: Hofmann mostra all’archivista della chiesa Don Schmidt una benedizione di Joseph Smith in cui dichiara che il figlio Joseph Smith III sarà il suo legittimo successore e i suoi discendenti dopo di lui, cosa che indebolisce non poco le rivendicazioni di legittimità dei mormoni dello Utah e rafforza quelle della Chiesa Riorganizzata del Missouri, guidata dai discendenti di Joseph Smith. Quando l’archivista esita sul prezzo, Hofmann la propone alla Chiesa Riorganizzata, che è comprensibilmente molto interessata visto che ha solo storie tramandate oralmente ma non documenti in merito. Quando la Prima Presidenza viene a sapere da Schmidt dell’esistenza della benedizione, si muove subito per acquisirla prima che cada nelle mani dei riorganizzati o che venga diffusa pubblicamente. Hofmann tratta con entrambe le parti e alla fine la cede alla chiesa dello Utah in cambio di altri oggetti rari ma non prima di aver fatto correre voci sull’esistenza della benedizione, forzando la chiesa ad ammetterne il possesso dopo che alcuni giornali rivelano la notizia. Nella Conferenza Generale di ottobre Hinckley fa un discorso apologetico su come questo non mini le rivendicazioni di Brigham Young; non menziona però un’altra lettera che Hofmann gli ha dato nello stesso periodo e in cui Thomas Bullock rimprovera Brigham Young per aver voluto sopprimere tutte le copie della benedizione vedendola come un pericolo alla sua autorità. Questa lettera tornerà alla luce solo durante le investigazioni e salterà fuori che era stata tenuta segreta perfino al personale del dipartimento di storia o degli archivi come Arrington, Schmidt e Dean Jessee (uno dei massimi esperti su Joseph Smith).
Dopo questa “scoperta” si pongono restrizioni sull’accesso agli archivi della chiesa e l’apostolo Boyd K. Packer attacca gli storici mormoni durante una conferenza del Sistema Educativo della Chiesa lanciando un pesante avvertimento: “Per lo scrittore o l’insegnante di storia della chiesa c’è la tentazione di voler dire tutto quanto, che sia degno e promuova la fede oppure no. […] Quello storico o studioso a cui piace mostrare le debolezze e le fragilità di dirigenti presenti o passati distrugge la fede. Un distruttore di fede, specialmente uno all’interno della chiesa, e ancor più uno che ha un impiego specificamente per edificare la fede, si mette in grande pericolo spirituale. Sta servendo il padrone sbagliato e, a meno che non si penta, non sarà fra i fedeli nelle eternità.” The mantle is far, far greater than the intellect
A queste minacce si contrappone il professore della BYU D. Michael Quinn, che era stato per poco tempo assistente di Arrington, parlando alla Student History Association della BYU: “La tragica verità è che ci sono state occasioni nelle quali i dirigenti, gli insegnanti e gli scrittori della chiesa non hanno detto la verità che conoscevano riguardo a temi difficili del passato mormone, ma hanno invece offerto ai santi un miscuglio di banalità, mezze verità, omissioni e negazioni plausibili. L’anziano Packer e altri lo giustificano perché ‘siamo in guerra con l’Avversario’ e devono anche proteggere ogni santo degli ultimi giorni la cui ‘testimonianza sta ancora germogliando.’ Ma una tale difesa da relazioni pubbliche della chiesa è in realtà una Linea Maginot di difese sabbiose in cui ‘il nemico’ può far facilmente breccia, e la ha eretta scavando pozzi letali nei quali i santi cadranno. Una cosiddetta storia della chiesa ‘che promuove la fede’ e che nasconde le controversie e le difficoltà del passato mormone in realtà mina la fede dei santi degli ultimi giorni, che alla fine conosceranno queste cose da altre fonti.” On being a Mormon historian
Nel 1982 si chiama un nuovo storico della chiesa al posto di Arrington, il Settanta G. Homer Durham; gli archivi storici vengono chiusi a studiosi e ricercatori, ma si viene a formare una rete clandestina in cui circolavano fotocopie di documenti originali “contrabbandati” dagli archivi o da collezioni private che vengono scambiati fra storici, appassionati e detrattori. Hofmann vende al collezionista Brent Ashworth una lettera del 1829 di Lucy Mack Smith alla cognata sul ritrovamento e la traduzione del Libro di Mormon. Gli storici mormoni sono galvanizzati perché la lettera sembra sostenere le versioni più tarde sul ritrovamento del Libro di Mormon per intervento divino e perciò indebolirebbe le tesi documentate da molti altri storici che mostravano i legami con credenze magiche e l’evoluzione col tempo di diverse versioni dell’origine del mormonismo. La lettera inoltre rivela informazioni inedite sul Libro di Lehi, per esempio che Ismaele era il fratello di Saria. A ottobre appare un articolo in merito sull’Ensign.
Nel 1983 Hofmann immagina che ormai l’era della trasparenza nel dipartimento di storia della chiesa sia finita e che per evitare di sollevare un polverone sulle sue origini sarebbero disposti a versare somme importanti. Contatta Durham mostrandogli una lettera del 1825 di Joseph Smith a Josiah Stoal (scritto anche Stowell) in cui gli spiegava come fare rituali magici per allontanare lo spirito guardiano da un tesoro che cercava. Hinckley ne è informato e, preoccupato per i legami fra l’occulto e il ritrovamento delle tavole d’oro sorvegliate da Moroni, chiede a Hofmann chi sappia della lettera e dice che lui stesso l’avrebbe comprata se avesse avuto un certificato di autenticità. Hofmann riesce a farla autenticare dall’esperto Charles Hamilton, che gli dice che la chiesa avrebbe pagato un bel po’ per impossessarsene e farla sparire visto che secondo lui dimostrava che Smith fosse interessato più a cercar tesori che non Dio. Hinckley la comprerà per 15.000 dollari ma, quando il Salt Lake Tribune lo rivelerà un paio di anni dopo, il portavoce della chiesa Jerry Cahill negherà che la chiesa la abbia in un’intervista del 29 aprile. Corre voce che verranno pubblicate fotocopie della lettera, ed è quando ormai è innegabile che Cahill sarà costretto a dire al Tribune il 7 maggio che in effetti era in loro possesso (per gran sorpresa degli storici mormoni e dell’ormai pensionato Schmidt che ne erano stati tenuti completamente all’oscuro). Sempre nel 1983 Hinckley offre 25.000 dollari a Hofmann per il contratto fra il tipografo E. B. Grandin, Joseph Smith e Martin Harris per la stampa del Libro di Mormon.
Nel 1984 Hofmann crea una lettera in cui Martin Harris racconta a W. W. Phelps come Joseph Smith ha trovato il Libro di Mormon: un giorno Harris chiede al giovane Smith, mentre parlavano di tesori nascosti e di spiriti che li custodivano, se fosse vera la storia che aveva trovato un libro d’oro con la sua pietra cercatesori e Joseph gli dice di sì e che una salamandra bianca che poi si trasforma in uno spirito gli aveva impedito di recuperarle per il momento. Il tema è imbarazzante perché come molti falsi di Hofmann è basato su fatti reali dei quali la chiesa non vuole che si discuta troppo dato che dipingerebbero il fondatore come un volgare visionario o addirittura un potenziale truffatore. Incarica poi un collaboratore di vendere la lettera alla chiesa, ma il prezzo è troppo alto e a Temple Square non si fidano che manterrà il silenzio sull’acquisto scottante. Hofmann cambia piano e contatta la chiesa dicendo che sa della lettera e che potrebbe convincere il proprietario a vendergliela. Don Schmidt propone a Hofmann per conto del dipartimento di storia di far comprare la lettera a un ricco mormone, che l’avrebbe poi donata alla chiesa: questi sarà Steve Christensen, un vescovo nonché uomo d’affari appassionato di storia della chiesa vicino a Sunstone. In questo modo la chiesa avrebbe potuto dire pubblicamente, se la cosa fosse stata scoperta, di non aver acquistato la “lettera della salamandra” per nasconderla (visto che tecnicamente era un regalo, così come poteva dire che non aveva comprato la lettera del 1825 visto che tecnicamente lo aveva fatto Hinckley). Ovviamente Hofmann fa trapelare di nuovo la notizia, che finisce sui giornali; Il neoapostolo Dallin H. Oaks cercherà di disinnescare la carica occulta della salamandra dicendo a una conferenza del Sistema Educativo del 16 agosto 1985 che Joseph non aveva visto una salamandra nel senso dell’animale anfibio, ma che la salamandra era un animale mitico che viveva nel fuoco e che in questo caso era sinonimo di “angelo”, che vive alla presenza fiammeggiante di Dio. Aggiungerà poi che “Il fatto che una cosa sia vera non è sempre una giustificazione per comunicarla […], alcune cose che sono vere non edificano o non sono appropriate da comunicare.” Reading church history
In quel periodo è pubblicato anche Mormon Enigma, che riabilita la figura di Emma Smith e parla con molti dettagli della sua odiata convivenza con la poligamia del marito, alcune delle cui relazioni vengono approfondite; alle autrici verrà vietato di parlarne in chiesa per evitare controversie. L’anno successivo vengono dati alle stampe dalla University of Illinois gli “Studies of the Book of Mormon” di B. H. Roberts, un Settanta e assistente storico della chiesa che negli anni ’20 aveva scritto riguardo alcuni problemi del Libro di Mormon. Nei suoi Studi dimostrava non solo che Joseph Smith avrebbe avuto tutte le risorse per idearlo ma che aveva trovato anche molti punti in comune con l’opera del pastore Ethan Smith “View of the Hebrews” e perciò gli Studi non videro la luce per oltre sessant’anni. Rivolgendosi agli apostoli ai quali aveva indirizzato i suoi scritti, Roberts disse profeticamente: “Vi assicuro che sono assolutamente convinto della necessità per tutti i fratelli ai quali mi rivolgo qui di prendere familiarità con questi problemi del Libro di Mormon e trovare risposte per essi, siccome è una questione che concernerà la fede dei giovani della chiesa di oggi come del futuro e anche gli occasionali investigatori che potrebbero venire a noi dal mondo esterno.”
Nel 1985 Hofmann ha creato una falsa versione del “giuramento di un uomo libero” (Oath of a Freeman), il primo documento stampato nelle Tredici colonie, ed è in trattativa con varie istituzioni per venderlo sperando di ricavare almeno un milione di dollari; sta anche pianificando da tempo di creare dei documenti e spacciarli per la collezione McLellin, mandando in giro voci che l’avrebbe trovata in Texas. William McLellin era uno dei primi apostoli ordinati da Joseph Smith ma aveva lasciato l’incarico nel 1836 perché, fra le altre cose, Smith modificava le rivelazioni che aveva ricevuto a suo piacimento prima di pubblicarle; scomunicato due anni dopo, se ne andrà con diversi documenti storici e per tutta la vita ricorderà ai dirigenti mormoni che per diversi anni nessuno di loro aveva sentito parlare della prima visione, della restaurazione del sacerdozio e racconterà altre storie compromettenti per denunciare eventi inventati a posteriori e sulle relazioni extraconiugali di Joseph Smith: i critici della chiesa avrebbero fatto di tutto per ottenere i suoi documenti e diari, così come la chiesa per sottrarli a occhi indiscreti. Hofmann è però nei guai: sta acquistando parecchie costose prime edizioni, comprando una casa in un quartiere chic, è indietro con le tasse e si è fatto anticipare molto denaro da varie persone per acquistare documenti antichi proponendoli come una forma di investimento. Ormai ha debiti per quasi un milione di dollari e il pagamento per il “giuramento di un uomo libero” non arriva a causa dei lunghi controlli necessari per autenticarlo.
Messo ormai alle strette, Hofmann contatta di nuovo Christensen e gli dice che ha solo due giorni per pagare il proprietario della collezione McLellin o l’avrebbe venduta a dei critici della chiesa, ma non aveva i fondi necessari perché aspettava un grosso pagamento. Neanche Christensen se la passava bene perché il fondo di investimento per cui lavorava stava per andare in bancarotta, ma indirizza Hofmann all’amico e Settanta Hugh W. Pinnock, che avrebbe potuto prestargli i soldi, e si offre di autenticare la collezione una volta acquisita. Pinnock chiama Dallin H. Oaks, che gli dice che solo Hinckley può autorizzare un prestito ma al momento era in Europa e propone invece di trovare un membro che possa prestare i 185.000 dollari che poi doni la collezione alla chiesa. Ottenuto il denaro (Pinnock era un direttore della First Interstate Bank, che usa per concedere il prestito) e un’offerta per continuare a trovare documenti per conto della chiesa, Hofmann deve inventarsi un altro modo per guadagnare tempo e trovare ancora soldi con cui spianare almeno in parte gli altri debiti. Dice a Pinnock che ha ottenuto la collezione, che è in un luogo sicuro e che l’avrebbe donata una volta ricevuti i soldi del “giuramento di un uomo libero” e ripagato il debito, ma quando la data del pagamento passa la banca chiama per esigere che i soldi vengano restituiti e a Pinnock tocca estinguere di tasca propria il prestito che aveva concesso a Hofmann. A questo punto le autorità generali non si fidano più del cercatore di documenti e gli annunciano che sarà un ricco presidente di missione a fornirgli il denaro ma che ora vogliono la collezione. Hofmann compie l’impensabile per non consegnare la collezione inesistente a Christensen, che doveva andare a ritirarla: la mattina del 15 ottobre gli lascia una bomba nell’ufficio in cui lavora, che lo uccide. Più tardi ne lascia un’altra davanti alla casa dell'ormai ex capo di Christensen, Gary Sheets, per depistare le indagini e far pensare che gli omicidi abbiano origine dalla bancarotta della loro attività. Il secondo pacco bomba toglierà la vita alla moglie di Sheets, Kathy, mentre lo raccoglie da terra. Nel pomeriggio degli omicidi, Hofmann incontra Oaks in ufficio sperando che l’acquisizione della collezione McLellin sia saltata o almeno posticipata; Oaks, credendo come tutti che gli attentati non abbiano nulla a che vedere con la faccenda, dice di non vederne il motivo e lo ringrazia di non aver lasciato cadere in mani ostili i vari documenti che aveva fornito alla chiesa. Non immagina neanche di avere un assassino di fronte, proprio come si aspetta Hofmann dato che non credeva che fosse un profeta, veggente e rivelatore.
Il giorno dopo è Hofmann a saltare in aria nella sua auto sportiva per errore: aveva preparato una terza bomba per uccidere il collezionista Brent Ashworth, che incontrava regolarmente, e che avrebbe dovuto anche distruggere l’auto assieme a vari fogli nel bagagliaio dando l’impressione di essere la collezione McLellin. Hofmann sopravvive ma, quando dice agli investigatori che la bomba era caduta dall’auto aprendo la portiera, questi cominciano ad avere dei sospetti dato che sanno che invece la bomba è esplosa mentre lui era nell’auto. Non si riesce però a trovare un movente per gli omicidi: a un certo punto si pensa addirittura che siano stati dei fanatici mormoni che volevano punire le persone che continuavano a rovistare nella storia della chiesa oppure una rete di omosessuali antimormoni o altro ancora. Hinckley, Oaks e Pinnock vengono interrogati dagli investigatori visto che hanno avuto molto a che fare con Hofmann e Christensen, ma Hinckley minimizza gli incontri dicendo in presenza dell'avvocato che conosce a malapena il falsario e si trincera dietro un muro di “non mi ricordo” rifiutando di consegnare il suo diario, mentre Oaks (un ex giudice) ammette francamente i contatti e indica a Pinnock di fare lo stesso. George Throckmorton e William Flynn scoprono dopo lunghe ricerche che tutti i documenti di Hofmann sono falsi e gli altri abili investigatori (James Bell, Kenneth Farnsworth, Michael George, Richard Forbes, Gerry D’Elia, David Biggs e Robert Stott) che aveva mentito sulla loro provenienza e che era sommerso dai debiti, quindi il movente diventa chiaro. Gli investigatori gli fanno capire che è con le spalle al muro, Hofmann confessa tutto per scampare alla pena di morte e verrà condannato all’ergastolo. Sembra che il suo obiettivo finale fosse creare le 116 pagine perdute includendo contraddizioni e dettagli imbarazzanti per la chiesa, in modo da farle perdere la credibilità rimasta e nel mentre fare un sacco di soldi. La chiesa sarà messa ulteriormente in imbarazzo quando la giornalista Dawn Tracy troverà parte della vera collezione McLellin in Texas e si scoprirà che l’altra parte, fra cui diversi diari, era già negli archivi della chiesa dal 1908 all’insaputa di tutti.
Con l’allontanamento di Arrington aveva però vinto la linea fondamentalista: Benson è presidente della chiesa dal 1985 al 1994, mentre negli anni ’90 Packer riuscirà a far scomunicare diversi storici e scrittori mormoni, fra i quali D. Michael Quinn. È solo durante la presidenza di Gordon B. Hinckley, col suo fiuto per le relazioni pubbliche e forse ricordando le spiacevoli esperienze, che nel 2005 si chiama come storico della chiesa il Settanta Marlin K. Jensen. Egli inaugura la pubblicazione dei Joseph Smith Papers (iniziata da Dean Jessee), la Biblioteca di Storia della Chiesa e una certa riapertura degli archivi. Oggi la chiesa va a braccetto con gli apologeti e c’è ancora molto lavoro da fare, ma per gli appassionati di storia della chiesa è ricominciato un periodo in cui possono tornare a scoprire le origini e lo sviluppo del mormonismo con nuovo materiale che vede la luce dopo oltre un secolo. Concludo con ciò che ha detto nel 2016 lo storico Richard Bushman: “Penso che per rimanere forte, la chiesa debba ricostruire la sua narrativa. La narrativa dominante non è vera, non può essere sostenuta. La chiesa deve assorbire tutte queste nuove informazioni o si ritroverà su un terreno molto instabile e questo è ciò che sta cercando di fare; e sarà uno strappo per molte persone, specialmente quelle anziane, ma credo che debba cambiare.”
Per chi fosse interessato a Leonard Arrington e la sua notevole carriera, un suo libro autobiografico è “Adventures of a Church Historian” e parte dei suoi diari sono pubblicati in “Confessions of a Mormon Historian: the Diaries of Leonard J. Arrington, 1971-1997”
submitted by MacCohen to Exmormoni [link] [comments]


2020.05.18 13:02 diplohora Saiu a portaria para o concurso de admissao a carreira diplomatica (CACD)

Bom dia pessoal !
Essa é uma nova oportunidade para um concurso federal para a diplomacia.
nota do diario oficial aqui explica que o concurso vao ocorrer este ano.
Ele permite 25 vagas em ampla concorrencia. Tem matérias de idiomas, historia, economia, politica externa, direito interno e internacional.
Para os reddters interessados temos um subredddit especializado no concurso
brasilCACD
submitted by diplohora to concursospublicos [link] [comments]


2020.05.18 13:00 diplohora Saiu a portaria para o Concurso de admissao a carreira diplomatica (CACD)

Bom dia pessoal !
Essa é uma nova oportunidade para um concurso federal para a diplomacia.
nota do diario oficial aqui explica que o concurso vao ocorrer este ano.
Ele permite 25 vagas em ampla concorrencia. Tem matérias de idiomas, historia, economia, politica externa, direito interno e internacional.
Para os reddters interessados temos um subredddit especializado no concurso
brasilCACD
submitted by diplohora to ConcursosBR [link] [comments]


2020.05.15 20:11 mechanical_fan Vamos discutir o caso da Suécia /r/brasil.

Então, faz um tempo que eu vejo posts aparecendo no reddit em geral discutindo sobre o que acontece na Suécia e qual o objetivo do governo (sem praticamente nenhum tipo de base), então decidi fazer um post pra tentar esclarecer algumas coisas. Vou colocar fontes em sueco (e uma em norueguês), mas o translator faz um trabalho quase perfeito de tradução sueco-inglês (e provavelmente português) se alguém quiser ler.
Primeiramente, o governo sueco basicamente não decidiu nada diretamente. Ele simplesmente conversou entre os partidos no parlamento e eles decidiram que vão seguir o que o ‘epidemiologista chefe’ Anders Tegnell (que tem o cargo desde 2013 e trabalha na parte pública com doenças comunicáveis desde 2005) e a “Agência de Saúde Pública” (Folkhälsomyndigheten) falarem. A decisão é o mais técnico que pode ser, sem interferência nenhuma de politicagem ou economia. É literalmente proibido na constituição o governo interferir nas decisões dessas agências técnicas:
The Swedish constitution prohibits ministerial rule and mandates that the relevant government body, in this case an expert agency – the Public Health Agency – must initiate all actions to prevent the virus in accordance with Swedish law, rendering state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell a central figure in the crisis. The government usually follows agency advice – politicians overruling the advice from its agencies is extremely unusual in Sweden –
Agora vamos discutir algumas peculiaridades nórdicas que (provavelmente) influenciaram as decisões (e modelos epidemiológicos) do Anders Tegnell:
Número de pessoas por residência: A Suécia tem, literalmente, o menor número de pessoas dividindo uma moradia no mundo. É também país onde as pessoas saem mais cedo da casas dos pais no mundo . Em anedota: eu não conheço ninguém com mais de 19 que more com os pais. Conheço uma moça que divide um apartamento com o irmão, e as pessoas já acham isso esquisito.
Sweden has the smallest average household size in the OECD. With fewer than 2 people (1.99) per household, it is well below the OECD average of 2.63.
(https://www.oecd.org/els/family/47710686.pdf)
Densidade populacional e tamanho de regiões metropolitanas: A Suécia é em grande parte vazia. A densidade populacional é praticamente a mesma do Brasil, mas com uma grande diferença: A população é bem mais distribuída em cidades de tamanho pequeno e médio que super concentrada em metrópoles. As maiores regiões metropolitanas têm 2.2m, 1m e 700k habitantes (Estocolmo, Gotemburgo e Malmö). Depois disso nenhuma passa de 500k (a maior é Motala-Linköping-Norrköping, com 450k) (https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sveriges_l%C3%A4n). As cidades em si também são pouco densas, prédios com mais de 6 andares são (muito) raros.
Pra ver um mapa de densidade populacional da Europa: https://i.redd.it/l83xfr216wv41.png
Hábitos da população e confiança no governo: Esse é um caso mais complicado de achar fontes já que é cultural, mas é uma população que já naturalmente não gosta de proximidade física a outras pessoas Essa é uma cena comum, mesmo sob forte chuva ou nevasca. Além disso a população tem alta confiança no governo e em seguir simplesmente recomendações desse sem necessidade de leis específicas para isso.
Sistema de registros e número de identidade: Isso é uma peculiaridade da Suécia. Mas eles tem o sistema de registros (registers) que é provavelmente o mais completo do mundo. Na verdade, é bem comum o governo sueco ser acusado e não dar privacidade nenhuma a população devido à quantidade de informação que eles constantemente coletam, tudo ligado ao seu número de identidade. Em anedota: Eu fiquei doente uns meses atras e fui no médico que me recomendou antibióticos, mas não me deu receita (em papel físico). Eu fui na farmácia, dei o meu cartão de identidade e o farmacêutico já sabia o que tinha acontecido comigo ao consultar no computador. A conta da consulta chegou por correio. O governo sueco coletou: quando eu fiquei doente, com o que, quem me atendeu e qual antibiótico (até a marca) eu comprei. O endereço ele já sabia. Na verdade, é bem comum em compra online você colocar seu número de identidade e o site auto completar seu nome, data de nascimento, endereço, telefone e email.
Número de mortos: A contagem é diferente de todos os países no mundo, mas é provavelmente a mais precisa e realista. Eles simplesmente cruzam as informações na base de registros deles e contam como morte por covid qualquer um que morreu até 14 dias depois de qualquer diagnóstico de covid. É bem comum nos outros países dependerem de hospitais/médicos reportarem diariamente e individualmente mortes por covid, alguns nem estão/estavam contando mortes em casas de retiro (UK, Italia, Espanha e Holanda). Na Noruega mesmo ainda é feito por telefone e eles mesmo comentam que os números seriam diferentes se fizessem contagem como a Suécia. Isso evita algumas dúvidas, por exemplo: se alguém tem alguma comorbidade como câncer e covid, a morte foi causada por qual? Alguns médicos podem colocar câncer, mas pro governo sueco é contado como covid, sempre. Se você morrer em um acidente de carro atropelando um alce 12 dias depois, também é morte por covid (é um problema real, a Volvo inclusive testa para isso).
Objetivo: Vamos acabar com algumas lendas urbanas aqui. Não é objetivo do governo sueco alcançar imunidade de rebanho. Também não é objetivo “preservar a economia”. O principal objetivo da “Agência de Saúde Pública” é simplesmente evitar que o sistema de saúde não seja sobrecarregado e ter uma política sustentável a longo prazo. Na verdade o Tegnell é bem pessimista sobre essas coisas:
Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist who devised the no-lockdown approach, estimated that 40 per cent of people in the capital, Stockholm, would be immune to Covid-19 by the end of May, giving the country an advantage against a virus that “we’re going to have to live with for a very long time”.
“In the autumn there will be a second wave. Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases will probably be quite low,” Mr Tegnell told the Financial Times. “But Finland will have a very low level of immunity. Will Finland have to go into a complete lockdown again?”
“I don’t think we or any country in the world will reach herd immunity in the sense that the disease goes away because I don’t think this is a disease that goes away,” he added.
“It’s a big mistake to sit down and say ‘we should just wait for a vaccine’. It will take much longer than we think. And in the end, we don’t know how good a vaccine it will be. It’s another reason to have a sustainable policy in place.”
https://www.ft.com/content/a2b4c18c-a5e8-4edc-8047-ade4a82a548d
Ações do governo: Basicamente, fechou escolas de ensino médio, universidade, proibiu visitas em casas de retiro, agregações acima de 50 pessoas e o mais importante: Colocou uma série de recomendações de comportamento e informou toda a população (isso pode ser visto em (https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/). Decidiram não fechar escolas para não sobrecarregar quem trabalha no sistema de saúde e não arriscar que as pessoas peçam ajuda a familiares mais velhos:
According to the Health Agency, the main reasons for not closing schools was that as a preventive measure it lacked support by research or scientific literature, and because of its negative effects on society. They argued that many parents, including healthcare professionals, would have no choice but to stay home from work to care for their children if schools were closed. There was also concern for a situation where elderly people babysit their grandchildren, as they are of bigger risk of severe symptoms in case of infection. According to agency's estimations, closures of elementary schools and preschool could result in an absence of up to 43,000 healthcare professionals, including doctors, nurses and nurse's assistants, equalling 10 percent of the total workforce in the sector. In May, Tegnell said that the decision was right, as the healthcare system would not have managed the situation the past months if Swedish authorities had chosen to close elementary schools.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden#Strategy
Redução em horas. O governo sueco está cobrindo até 50% da redução em horas, ou seja, a empresa paga metade, e o governo cobre o resto e as pessoas só trabalham 50% também. Empregadores pequenos recebem algumas outras vantagens também.
O governo começou a cobrir pagamento de todos os dias de afastamento por doença e mudaram as regras sobre receber salário em caso de doença:
The 'karensdag' or initial day without paid sick-leave has been removed by the government and the length of time one can stay home with pay without a doctor's note has been raised from 7 to 21 days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden#Finance_and_the_economy
Resultados: As pessoas seguem recomendação do governo? Sim. Por exemplo, na semana da pascoa, um dos maiores feriados na Suecia, as visitas para Gotland (um dos pontos de férias mais populares) caíram em mais de 90%. Åre (estação de ski) e o resto do país tiveram números similares.
As pessoas estão trabalhando de casa. Não consigo achar um valor recente para o país inteiro, mas essa fonte para Estocolmo está entre 70-80% dependendo do bairro (conforme classe social, como esperado). Eu pessoalmente só tenho um amigo que está indo pro trabalho fisicamente, mas ele é engenheiro em uma fábrica e está indo 2 vezes por semana. A Suécia é um país altamente digitalizado, tanto em acesso a internet e uso diario quanto ao tipo de industria. Isso facilita bastante. (de cabeça: Spotify, Ericsson, King, Paradox, Mojang, Klarna)
Houve também expansão da capacidade de UTI, no pico, por volta de 80% do sistema estava sendo usado. Mas o pico passou. Os melhores sites para ver o estado atual e histórico, na minha opinião são:
https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/
https://c19.se/en (clique na legenda para escolher o que quer ver e mudar escala - número de pessoas no hospital e em UTI/IVA tem caído faz duas semanas)
Teve problemas? Sim, teve muito problema nas casas de retiro:
He made the point that care homes in Sweden — like in the rest of the Nordic region — were for “the very old and the very sick”, as most elderly people live at home, and that there were known “quality problems” with care providers, often private companies.
“Unfortunately those quality problems have proven to make the elderly very vulnerable to infection,” Mr Tegnell said, adding that an investigation had begun.
https://www.ft.com/content/a2b4c18c-a5e8-4edc-8047-ade4a82a548d
Economia: Como eu comentei, isso simplesmente não é o ponto do governo sueco. Nunca foi. Na verdade, qualquer discussão agora é muito cedo, por razões óbvias. Vai ter artigo científico sendo escrito sobre cada país pelos próximos 10 anos. Mas a economia sueca é mais dependente de exportações de manufaturados que os vizinhos, por isso até mesmo esses pequenos pontos é dificil de comparar (de cabeça: Eletrolux, Volvo, Scania, IKEA, H&M). É simplesmente cedo demais. E quem está tomando a decisões não se importa com isso também. Ninguém espera salvar a economia nem coloca como objetivo.
“It is too early to say that we would do better than others. In the end, we think Sweden will end up more or less the same,” said Christina Nyman, a former deputy head of monetary policy at the Riksbank who is now chief economist at lender Handelsbanken.
One big reason is that Sweden is a small, open economy with a large manufacturing industry. Truckmaker Volvo Group and carmaker Volvo Cars were both forced to stop production for several weeks, not because of conditions in Sweden but due to lack of parts and difficulties in their supply chains elsewhere in Europe. Ms Nyman noted that despite being relatively little hit directly by the 2008 financial crisis Sweden’s economy still suffered more than many.
Ms Nyman said she believed that without the no-lockdown policy, Sweden would have been harder hit, as in 2008. “If we didn’t have these better circumstances, we would have done worse. Usually, we are more severely hit by a global recession,” she added. Economists at Swedish bank SEB estimate Sweden’s GDP will drop 6.5 per cent this year, about the same as the US and Germany, but a little better than Norway and ahead of 9-10 per cent falls in Finland and Denmark, all of which have had lockdowns.
But Mr Oxley stressed that Sweden was still dependent on demand and supply chains in other countries. “There’s only a limited amount of upside to being contrary when the rest of the world is doing the opposite,” he added.
https://www.ft.com/content/93105160-dcb4-4721-9e58-a7b262cd4b6e
TLDR: A estratégia da Suécia é diferente mas as intenções são bem diferentes do que as pessoas tem falado nesse sub. É sobre a economia (ou políticos)? NÃO. É a melhor estratégia? É cedo pra dizer. Eu recomendaria para o Brasil? NÃO. O Brasil: não tem capacidade nos hospitais, as cidades são imensamente mais densas, as pessoas moram com a família, gostam de contato físico e não gostam de seguir recomendação governamental.
submitted by mechanical_fan to brasil [link] [comments]


2020.04.27 14:42 sanchit_agarwal1995 "SailThru"

Hi, we were fetching the data from the API for the "campaign summary" under the analytics tab in the SailThru UI Dashboard. For pulling the data, we are using stats API-https://getstarted.sailthru.com/developers/api/stats/ But we were not getting a metric "Delivered" from the API. Attached screenshot for your reference(the red marked metric is "Delivered" which we need, but unable to get it from API).
https://preview.redd.it/u8tjlfhpvcv41.png?width=1602&format=png&auto=webp&s=04e0ff793c6fc4d2bfeb1dd4e961a6acb116f9f9
Other than this, ,when we are fetching the complete data(without applying any filter on template), the numbers are matching. But when we are fetching the data by each template, the numbers are drastically different. Attached screenshot for your reference.
https://preview.redd.it/k1ngvlytvcv41.png?width=1620&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7de744048a4ca752e05d87773d0241fa778349b
We need the metrics marked red. When we pull this data for template name: El Diario - Autos (Mon - Fri), we get the following data:
{ "count":14, "pv":1, "open_total":39, "click_total":2, "click_multiple_urls":1, "confirmed_opens":13, "estopens":13, "beacon":13, "click":1, "start_date":20200115, "end_date":20200415 }
Could you please check what's the issue here? Should we need to use some different API endpoint to fetch data by each template? I would really appreciate your support here.
submitted by sanchit_agarwal1995 to adops [link] [comments]


2020.04.07 02:17 Blockflote ¿Cuáles son los límites de los planes de data "ilimitados"?

Hola, me gustaría saber si alguien tiene información al respecto de cuáles son los diferentes límites dentro de los planes "ilimitados" de data de las distintas compañías del país, ya sean de contrato o preplan. Tengo especial interés en Movistar.
PD: Me refiero con esto al límite de uso que te permiten antes de realizar una importante disminución a la velocidad, a un nivel prácticamente inutilizable. Son pocas las compañías que revelan esta información públicamente, lo cual he considerado siempre como publicidad engañosa. Como ejemplo, escuché de alguien cercano que en el plan de contrato de Claro el límite son alrededor de 15 GB diarios, más o menos.
submitted by Blockflote to Panama [link] [comments]


2020.04.02 23:51 mrmanager237 How Argentina learnt to stop worrying and combat coronavirus

As anyone who hasn’t spent the last month under a rock knows, the COVID-19 coronavirus is a big deal to the global economy, and governments have taken a number of potentially disruptive measures to contain it. The aim of this post is to look somewhat closely at the likely impact to the economy of this famously unstable country, and to briefly weigh the policy actions of the Alberto Fernández administration against their costs.

A little context

Argentina and economic collapse, name a more iconic duo. In the past decade, the inflation rate went from the twenties to the fifties, and 2019 had the highest recorded figure in almost thirty years: 53.8%. The country has not grown for two consecutive years in an entire decade, and official figures for most relevant variables, including unemployment and production, are unreliable (to put it kindly) since the official statistics agency was intervened by politicians and pretty much faked its data for ten years.
In 2015, the reign of a faction of Peronism (the dominant political ideology/party in Argentina, an economically left, nationalistic, autarchic, anti-globalization movement) known as Kirchnerism, with more ties to the hard left and more socially progressive than the rest of the party, came to a close after 12 years of dominance: their prefered Presidential candidate, Daniel Scioli (an unpopular, unexciting, uncharismatic Governor who lost an arm in a boat racing accident) narrowly lost a runoff to the center-right Mauricio Macri, the mayor of the country’s capital. Macri ran on a platform of change (his coalition of centrist parties was literally named Cambiemos, or Let’s Change) and promised to lower taxes, reduce regulations, open the economy, and lead Argentina into a new era of market-based prosperity. This did not pan out: after a rocky first year, where the lifting of currency controls and sky high raises in public utilities led to a 40% inflation rate, nearly 15 point above the previous year’s, 2017 looked bright: GDP grew, wages increased, inflation returned to its prior levels and seemed to be going down, and the government scored a double-digit win in the midterms.
2018 was even more promising, until May: following a series of policy and communications missteps by the government, investors became more bullish on the nation’s ability to repay its significant dollar-denominated debt; when the Fed raised rates in May, capitals bled out of the country and the peso began depreciating for months, more than doubling from 19 pesos per dollars to over 40 by the end of the year; the economy took a beating, with GDP collapsing and completely erasing the previous year’s gains. 2019 was tougher: Macri became, obviously, increasingly unpopular - but still stood a chance because his likeliest rival, the divisive and corrupt former President and sitting Senator Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, appeared to be an even less palatable candidate - and voters going to moderate Peronist economist Roberto Lavagna looked more like Macri than Kirchner supporters. In an unexpected, risky gambit, Kirchner picked her former Chief of Staff, the little known and more moderate Alberto Fernández (no relation, it’s a common surname) to run for President, with her being his running mate. This bet paid off: Fernández united the entire Peronist party (no easy task, since Kirchner wasn’t particularly popular with Peronist Governors) and surpassed all expectations: while polling had him in dead heat against Macri, the high number of undecided voters made the race extremely volatile. After two hours of delays, the results of the national primaries (basically a trial election) came in: Fernández had beat Macri by nearly 20 points, 49 to 32, and was, by all intents and purposes, the next President. The markets did not take this well, since the winning candidate was notoriously vague and tight lipped in his positions: in a single day, stocks and bonds plummeted by 55%, and the peso depreciated another 33% - to 63 pesos. Macri performed better in the October elections, getting 40% to Fernández’s 48% due to higher turnout, but still lost. 2019 was another bad year: GDP shrank by 2.2%, unemployment soared to 9.7% (it later came down to 8.9%), and poverty rose from 25.4% (a historic low) in 2017 to 35.4% in the first semester; the only positive figures are the fiscal deficit, which went from 4% in 2015 to 0.5% in 2019, and the trade balance, which reversed sign and was an astounding 19 billion surplus; the current account deficit was reduced from a staggering 31 billion in 2017 to 3.4 billion in 2019, the lowest since 2012 and mostly caused by the positive trade and service balances.
The Fernandez administration, meanwhile, surprised in its moderation: efforts have been made to somewhat maintain fiscal balance, while also increasing welfare payments without committing “populist excesses”, to somewhat speak. The fiscal balance has been weak, though, with Economy Minister Martín Guzmán only vowing a surplus in 2023 and returning to the much dreaded “gradualism” of the Macri era. Fernández seemed mostly interested in one issue: restructuring the country’s substantial debt (nearly 90% of GDP), which included a record breaking program by the IMF and the products of a previous restructuring, in 2005, after the country defaulted in 2002 (it would partially default again in 2014) - Guzmán himself is an academic focusing on the issue, and a disciple of the “heterodox” Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz at Columbia.

The healthcare system

Argentina’s healthcare system is complex, heterogenous, and very poorly supervised - public health is not mentioned in the Constitution, putting it under the purview of provinces, except for some compromises between jurisdictions to make it run smooth.
Considering the demand side of healthcare, the age structure of Argentina is not particularly concerning: only 15% of the population is over 60, and, on average, 88.5% of those over 60% have some kind of health insurance. Speaking of, 60% have any kind of insurance, according to census data - higher with age. Although 35.4% of the country lives in poverty, this number plummets to around 10% in older groups - providing a better safety net for the most vulnerable groups (children, by comparison, have a 52.5% rate). The country is only worryingly densely populated around the nation’s capital, the City of Buenos Aires, whose metro area comprises 13 million people and an expanded definition is inhabited by almost 20.
On the provider side, the country’s hospitals are mostly run by the provinces, except a handful in the orbit of the national government. According to the government, the country spent 9.8% of GDP on healthcare - 6.6% by the public sector, and 2.8% by private companies. The country seems to have a low number of physicians, hospital beds, and nurses - yet the larger provinces with a higher number of cases seem better prepared. Still, the glaring inequalities in the country make it clear that being ill in the wealthy City of Buenos Aires or the oil producing, sparsely populated Santa Cruz would be highly preferable to Chaco or Misiones. Another notable issue is the disparity between systems: private insurers (“prepagas”) offer extremely high quality care, as does PAMI, Argentina’s equivalent to Medicare (it is, in fact, a state-run public insurer for the elderly). The problem comes with the public system, which is much higher quality in richer provinces, especially in the less populated Patagonia.
The country, despite not being at such apparent risk, has taken measures extremely early: a full quarantine was announced roughly 20 days after the first confirmed case. The main situation is the country has only really tested those who either traveled abroad recently or were in close contact to those who did - meaning that official statistics of 500 infected, 8 dead aren’t particularly meaningful, and the number of tests administered isn’t publicly available.

Employment, poverty, and consumption

The country being under a quarantine poses a significant risk: 35% of the labor force works in the informal sector, and another 15% is self-employed. This means that, under a lockdown, nearly half of the population wouldn’t receive any income. The Catholic University of Argentina's Observatory for Social Debt (sworn enemies of mine, if you’ve read my previous post on poverty) estimates that 32% of people don’t receive any kind of formal salary, and that just two thirds of those families don’t even collect welfare checks - so 10% of homes will be deprived of all forms of income during a lockdown. The government has tried to mitigate this: bonuses for welfare recipients and the poorest retirees were announced, a $10.000 bonus for the unemployed,and some self-employed people was enacted, and the steps have been taken to ensure that people don’t lose access to basic necessities: a temporary ban on eviction and loss of utilities, a freeze on housing credits and rent, and price controls. The Social Development Minister, Daniel Arroyo, recently declared that 11 million people are receiving nutritional assistance, 3 million more than before - and 3.5 million of whom are children.
The consulting firm IDESA paints an even bleaker picture: they claim 45% of all Argentinians live off of informality, meaning the quarantine, on this basis alone, could deal a crippling blow to nearly a majority of families. Others have gone further: a recent report claims that 5.5 million people are at “very high” risk of losing their jobs based on their employment status (self employed of informal) and at slightly lower risk depending on the sector they work in, even if they are registered. The government responded to this by banning firings and suspensions by decree, which will obviously negatively affect job creation (which is at historic lows anyway, according to Ministry of Labor data).
Consumption has also been negatively impacted, since the incomes of those newly unemployed will obviously decrease; some retailers have experienced decreases of 50% in sales, and many have estimated that people simply won’t be able to afford their living expenses or their credit card bills (which were recently postponed until after the quarantine is over).

Economic activity and output

Economists estimate that each day of the quarantine reduces GDP by 1 to 1.4 billion, although there is a massive caveat - their projections are all based on national holidays and workers’ strikes, which are quite different because they are both scheduled in some advance, aren’t particularly long (the longest national holiday lasts about 3 days), and national holidays in particular have much higher “entertainment” (cinemas, theaters, restaurants, vacations, etc.) spending than usual.
The aim of government policies so far seems to be to mitigate the loss of income on poor families, while not spending too much - the public sector has an extremely limited margin of action, given that current commitments make up 0.6% of GDP with revenue in free fall due to lower activity (VAT, income tax, and export taxes have been particularly deteriorated lately). The demand shock to some sectors will be highly negative: tourism, entertainment, non-basic goods, etc. As you can see here,the largest sectors of the economy (Industry, construction, and retail) will be hardest hit.
Starting with construction, things are not looking good: work has ground to a halt, while it has already had its worst performance in decades. The sector also has a very high demand for labor, some of the highest rates of labor informality, and is the third largest sector of employment (360k workers in December) which makes it a ticking time bomb of lost income that has to be addressed as soon as possible - and the government has announced new credits for construction, and a 100 billion public works plan. The sector has already registered its lowest employment levels ever this year, and in an omen for things to come, the massive multinational company Techint has already laid off 1500 workers based on estimates that their profits in April will be 0.
Regarding industry, after it has the worst indicators for production in since 2002, only the food and pharmaceutical industries seem to be trending upwards - and they only account for a third of industrial workers, which make up themselves a fifth of all workers.Industrial Union figures claim that just 20% of manufacturers are currently active - and that the entire sector is having difficulties paying salaries or acquiring components. Car manufacturers have shut down production until April, and expect to sell fewer than 200 thousand units this year; and the electronics sector has followed suit. While industry does not have the same level of informality construction does, some issues may arise. The main complication will be supply chains, since many key components for industrial production are imported - and most major manufacturers (notably China) are dealing with the aftermath of their own coronavirus responses. And lower projections for growth in Brazil could especially hurt the automotive industry, where 50% of units sold are destined for the Latin American country, and whose growth has a large impact on Argentina’s manufacturing sector (note: even if the article is old, it still very clearly illustrates the close relations between the countries).
Retail is the biggest problem: after a 30% surge in sales in the days leading up to the lockdown (mostly in large chain supermarkets and wholesalers), sales collapsed as people became more frightened to leave their homes: restaurants have reported a 55% drop in sales, bakeries an 80% decrease, and 70% of small shops have already shut down until people are back in the street, since their sales decreased by 50% as well. Retailers in most sectors express concern, and most restaurants, bars, and “proximity businesses” (drugstores, corner shops, and small convenience stores known as “Chinese supermarkets” because their owners are generally Asian immigrants) have seen their income go from a steady stream to a small trickle, mostly due to online shopping and home deliveries - amd 20% of these smaller stores have closed their doors for the duration of the quarantine. Small business owners have already expressed their concern with the situation, with most expecting steep losses in revenue and some even reducing their staff. The sector is the second largest employer in the economy, with nearly 20% of the workforce as well, and a retail recession, so to speak, could collapse into a vicious circle where a crash in demand is reflected in sales, which forces firms to downsize, leading to even more drops in revenue, which starts the cycle all over again.
Regarding other sectors: hotels, tourism, transportation, etc: have seen their income fall by billions, and combined employ as many workers as the construction construction. Agriculture and other primary activities are probably mostly affected by second order factors, such as lower international demand and lower prices - which puts them in a secondary position for aid; their main issue at the moment is the paralysis in activity affecting docks and trucking due to the lockdown. “Personal services”, the tech sectors, and other highly skilled workers can probably move home and still receive full compensation; some firms, such as “Latin America’s Amazon” Mercadolibre or companies that specialize in consulting or telecommunications, could even thrive in this context. .
All in all, the economy looks like it will take a big hit from the lockdown: experts have estimated that each day in March had a 30% reduction in activity (which could be estimated by the observed drops in the demand for electricity, fuel, and transportation), and some go even further and assume a 45% daily drop in April, due to higher baselines because of seasonal factors. Goldman Sachs predicts GDP would drop by 5.4% in 2020, the largest decrease in 18 years (it was 10.9% in 2002) and more than the previous for years combined.

Trade and the external sector

To begin with, Argentina is basically cut off from financial markets at this point: country risk (the premium the country must pay to borrow) skyrocketed to 4500 points at a maximum, before settling in the high 3000’s, and the country seems to be on the verge of its 9th debt default- restructuring offers are basically dead now, with Guzmán and Fernández previously intending to negotiate during March and April. There is no clear consensus on the specific consequences of a debt default, although this publication by the IMF seems to imply it both causes tremendous damage to a nation’s reputation and cuts off growth by weakening the banking sector (which has taken a pummeling in the last year), even if defaulting itself does not cause degrowth. Since most companies are expected to have difficulties paying salaries due to low liquidity, and most people are also expected to not pay some of their obligations, a financial crash could send shockwaves into an already weak economy. In the longer run, a weak financial sector (like the one Argentina most definitely has) can constrain the access to credit necessary for investment - which is a prerequisite for sustained growth, and which already is at its lowest share of GDP in decades. The government remains adamant that its official position is not to default, but the chances of an offer that both sides are content with are slim - the IMF itself has recently weighed in and supported large haircuts for the sovereign debts of emerging economies.
Secondly, trade: most of Argentina’s leading trading partners (Brazil, the EU, the US, China, South Korea) have been negatively affected by coronavirus - China’s GDP is probably going to plummet in the second quarter, and exports to Asian markets have already decreased by 30%. China alone is responsible for almost a third of all industrial exports, which will surely affect global supply chains negatively, as well as reducing imports. Argentina has mostly been a commodity exporter (they made up 40 of the 65 billion dollars in exports during 2019) and commodity prices have plunged during March - soybean, wheat and corn prices will affect the trade balance most harshly, and oil (which is key to national investment in the Southern provinces) has nearly halved in price, making the U$S 15 billion investments that were planned probably unprofitable. The agricultural sector in particular may be heading to a crisis of its own soon, since restrictions on labor and movement, issues with transportation, and blockages to roads and docks have negatively impacted production and sales - and April is the beginning of the most productive part of the year. Regarding Brazil, Argentina’s largest trading partner, relations have been tense due to the personal and political inminity between presidents Fernández and Bolsonaro (who at one point threatened to leave the Mercosur trade bloc) - and growth and industrial production projections for the neighbouring giant have steeply declined lately, which doesn’t bode well for Argentina at all: those indicators, due to the large entanglements between the two nations, are some of the strongest predictors of Argentinian growth (and vice versa: the Brazilian stagnation and manufacturing recession of these last few years have negatively impacted on its partner, which has also entered a recession of its own to the detriment of Brazil itself).
Another major issue for the government is the peso becoming “overvalued”: due to the high volatility in international capital markets (almost 60 billion fled out of developing countries/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-infobae.s3.amazonaws.com/public/IG6CNPW4IFD6VM3QCC5RY5VWXQ.jpg)), most emerging currencies have been battered, rapidly depreciating with regard to the US dollar. The Argentinian peso became one of the strongest currencies of such category (honestly surprising news) because the high rates of inflation mean that any devaluation will be offset by higher national prices; as a result, any gains in competitivity done after the massive devaluations of 2019 have already been lost, since the real exchange rate is, in fact, lower than it was in August. As a result, the country will lose many of its trade advantages over its competitors, which will negatively impact the trade balance (fewer exports + more imports, despite more rigorous controls) and possibly create difficulties in acquiring the hard currency in such high demand in the economy.

Deficits, debt, and the money printers

Argentina’s government has been quick to take action on the healthcare front, declaring a quarantine not even a month before the first cases were confirmed, and extending it for nearly a full month. Their political resolve in handling the pandemic was widely praised, with leaders across the political spectrum working together and Alberto Fernández himself soaring to 90% approval, with 95% of the population approving of his actions.
On the economic front, things have moved way more slowly. The government has mostly taken actions on the demand side, as was previously detailed, by increasing transfers to individuals on the basis of need and with a means-tested mechanism to ensure that nobody “with too much” gets aid. This logic may be questionable, but it is widely accepted that aiding those most in need is correct; so far, these programs have cost about 0.6% of GDP, doubling the public sector’s deficit (from 0.5% in 2019) amid slumping revenue, due to the ongoing recession (lowering income from VAT and, to a lower extent, payrolls and income) and the collapse in foreign trade (hurting export and import taxes). This will surely create difficulties all over the country, since the government will lose its margin of action concerning any future developments; provincial and municipal governments, extremely dependent on sales taxes, administrative charges, and central government remittances, will take an even larger hit (especially some, such as Buenos Aires, Chubut, and La Rioja, which are having serious difficulties with their external debt).
On the supply side, on the other hand, the government has been extremely slow in offering any real support to struggling businesses. 80% of small businesses don't think they could stay in business if the lockdown continues for an entire month, and 70% of companies are planning on cutting costs. Only some sectors (such as tourism and entertainment) received tax cuts, albeit in homeopathic proportions, and some plans to help the construction sector, such as the Procrear credits and a $100 billion infrastructure plan, will take their time. Companies have shown concerns regarding how to pay their employees’ salaries, since the collapse in sales has surely impaired their liquidity - and the Central Bank took measures to inject up to $280 billion into the economy, which has led to much lower rates in short-term borrowing. The government has also recently announced two new programs: government assistance of up to a minimum wage of salaries for companies with under 100 employees, a doubling of unemployment subsidies, and a 95% postponement in payroll taxes for smaller companies (up to 60 employees). This seems to make sense, until you consider that the largest companies have been hit just as hard by the recession in the past year, and that companies with over 100 employees have bled jobs for the last 12 months; this is without even getting into the sector-by-sector measures that almost all those affected (from construction, to cinemas, and small retailers) have already demanded. The fact that this expansion to spending seems to mostly come from into aggregate demand has not put experts at ease: this will not increase revenue at a time of crisis, but it could also be insufficient to protect firms from bankruptcy.
One of the biggest problems concerning an enlarged deficit is that almost all avenues of financing it are unavailable: reducing the deficit itself is impossible, as has been specified, and Argentina (as previously explained) is teetering on the verge of default, so it’s not like the financial sector is dying to lend. So the only remaining alternative is seigniorage: in March, the Central Bank assisted the Treasury to the tune of $125 billion, and has printed nearly $400 billion in this regard since December. Even if, yes, money printer go brr (for example, former Central Bank President and inflation hawk Guido Sandleris has defended the expansion as necessary, with some caveats, during a conference) many economists have recently rung alarm bells: the government's massive expansion of the monetary base (some say 62% in all of 2020, and it has recently reached the record high of 2 trillion pesos) could become a factor for inflation to still go up, from the 54.8% 20-year record in 2019 to the 60’s or even 70’s (since the exchange rate is under steep controls and the monetary base contracted massively in the previous two years, nobody serious is forecasting hyperinflation yet). The inflationary tax being a way to raise revenue in this dire context could be acceptable in the short term - the Central Bank gave $125 billion for the government, while overall emission was at nearly half a trillion and was mostly justified with measures to keep firms liquid and not allow the chain of payments to break - or force companies to not pay their taxes to stay solvent. And in another positive development for inflation doves, the demand of money has risen recently - since people and companies are having trouble paying their bills, their employees, or even buying groceries. This makes it unlikely the new pesos will go to the currency market (a leading preoccupation of policy makers), since that could put pressure for a devaluation and boost inflationary expectations - which generate inflation of their own.
Concerning debt, the government has taken all available steps to create confidence - despite being at ideological odds with the organism, it was recently announced that they would accept a U$S 3.5 billion dollar SDR that was previously refused, added to smaller loans of a couple hundred billion by the IDB and the World Bank to finance the new spending caused by the crisis. The IMF itself has expressed support for emerging markets giving large “haircuts” to their sovereign debts, which Minister Guzmán seems to have taken at heart: he looks set to offer big cuts to interests and principal, a grace period, and maybe even unorthodox instruments like a GDP based bonus. Bonds recovered slightly, and country risk went slightly down; the problematic aspect could be that part of the recovery in bonds could be by “vulture funds” trying to gobble up obligations for cheap to later sue the country and get the full amount from a more friendly government (as Paul Singer famously did in 2019). While Guzmán’s good intentions were appreciated, bondholders did not accept the offer - and countered with a proposal for a 6 month break in payments and negotiations out of mistrust of the government and the options it presented.

Conclusion

Summing up, 2020 is shaping up to be a tough year for Argentina - or even tougher than expected. All indicators seemed to point at the economy being somewhat on the path to a recovery, with a milder recession, less inflation, and a public sector with a small deficit and a friendly (as possible, at least) debt restructuring. Coronavirus came as bad news (where didn’t it, though) at the worst possible moment.
Despite the obvious political differences of most readers with the Fernández administration, it is clear that his handling of the healthcare side of the issue received wide acclaim, even if Latin America’s standards for it are depressingly low. On the economic front, Fernández acted within the bounds of the mainstream and still focused his efforts on the poorest segments of society. In the immediate context, it could seem like a positive - nevertheless, it’s clear that all actors in the economy will be heavily affected by the crisis, and not providing aid to all of them would be inadequate. The government has also undertaken some deeply populist measures that will have no meaningful effect: a list of maximum prices, enforced by AFIP (the tax collection agency) inspectors which has mostly resulted in crackdowns for the small businesses that can’t actually afford to sell at those values.
The authorities could provide the necessary stimulus to the economy, putting those least affected on the back burner until the worst of the crisis has passed; unfortunately, taking coronavirus as an opportunity to enact even stronger controls on market mechanisms out of ideological purity would do a huge disservice to the country at a crucial time.
submitted by mrmanager237 to neoliberal [link] [comments]


2020.04.01 06:24 TulkasNuuk Need some expert eye to see why this code aint working

Hi community!
I have just started a new project for web scraping https://mercadolibre.com.ar that is an equivalent to ebay in Argentina.I took the example online as I am starting to learn Python. It seems that the code is missing some references and I have been able to solve 4/5 lines. The last one is line 125 that it seems that is searching for a specific variable call that doesnt exist or work properly.
Any ideas on how to make it work?Help is appreciated as I am learning this to be able to build a project.

''' SCRAPPER MERCADOLIBRE - API --------------------------- Version: 2.0 Autor: Juan Jose Sisti Ultima Revision: 2018-03-26 Descripcion: Bajada de datos desde mercadolibre, utilizando el acceso via API POST que proveen. El proceso esta preparado para descargar dos tipos de elementos, inmuebles y vehiculos Se puede configurar modo DEBUG (set_debug(true)) para solo procesar los primeros elementos, esto tambien activa el modo "verbose" con salida detallada Requisitos de instalacion: - Python 3.x - Libreriras (incluye los comandos de instalacion) pip install numpy pip install pandas pip install pyodbc ''' from time import gmtime, strftime # Para obtener la fecha actual import pandas as pd import requests # Bajada de datos URL class inmueble: mercadolibre_id = 'MLA79242' tabla = 'mercadolibre_inmueble' # Utilizada para la carga en SQL columnas = ['fecha', 'producto_latitud', 'producto_longitud', 'url', 'tipo_propiedad']
# Conversion de json a dataframe y rearmado de datos para que sea formato tabla def adapt(self, items): data = pd.DataFrame(items) data = data.groupby(['id']).first().reset_index() # Elimina duplicados largo = data.shape[0] for i in range(0, largo): if (i % 100 == 0): print("Procesando: " + str(i) + " de " + str(largo)) try: # La fecha es la fecha de ejecucion, como este es un proceso diario, la necesitamos # para poder identificar las diferentes corridas data.loc[i, 'fecha'] = strftime("%Y_%m_%d", gmtime()) data.loc[i, 'mercadolibre_id'] = data.loc[i, 'id'] data.loc[i, 'producto_latitud'] = data.loc[i, 'location']['latitude'] data.loc[i, 'producto_longitud'] = data.loc[i, 'location']['longitude'] data.loc[i, 'url'] = data.loc[i, 'permalink'] dataAttr = pd.DataFrame(data.loc[i, 'attributes']) if (dataAttr.loc[dataAttr['id'] == 'PROPERTY_TYPE']['value_name'].count() > 0): data.loc[i, 'tipo_propiedad'] = dataAttr.loc[dataAttr['id'] == 'PROPERTY_TYPE']['value_name'].item() else: data.loc[i, 'tipo_propiedad'] = 'DESCONOCIDO' except Exception as e: print('Error adaptando: ' + str(i) + ' - ' + str(data.loc[i, 'mercadolibre_id']) + ' - ' + ' -- %s' % e) pass data = data.fillna('') # Los nulos los completamos con un string vacio return data[self.columnas]
class mercadolibreAPI: debug = False # Limita el procesamiento a los primeros elementos del primer indice, habilida la salida por pantalla de mensajes query = None objeto = None ml_url = 'http://api.mercadolibre.com/sites/MLA/search?category=' items = [] pd.options.display.float_format = '{:.2f}'.format
def set_debug(self, debug): self.debug = debug if self.debug: print("Modo Debug ENCENDIDO")
def request_get(self, url): if self.debug: print("Procesando url: ", url) try: return requests.get(url).json() except: return None def search(self, objeto: object) -> object: self.objeto = objeto() url = self.ml_url + self.objeto.mercadolibre_id + '&_PublishedToday_YES' print("Buscando: " + url) if (self.debug): paginators = 5 else: paginators = round(self.request_get(url)['paging']['total'] / 50) + 1 # Limito un poco los paginators, solo me traigo las primeras XX paginas # if(paginators>200): paginators = 200 for offset in range(0, paginators): url = self.ml_url + self.objeto.mercadolibre_id + '&_PublishedToday_YES&limit=50&offset=' + str(offset * 50) jsdata = self.request_get(url) if jsdata is not None: self.items = self.items + jsdata['results'] self.adapt()
def adapt(self): o = self.objeto self.items = o.adapt(self.items)
def export(self, tipo='csv'): if tipo.lower() == 'sql': self.export_sql() elif tipo.lower() == 'csv': self.export_csv() else: print("No existe el metodo de exportacion: " + tipo.lower())
def export_sql(self): ## No implementado return None def export_csv(self): archivo = "indice_" + self.objeto.mercadolibre_id + ".csv" if (self.debug): print("Guardando archivo", archivo) self.items.to_csv(archivo, sep=";", decimal=",")
ml = mercadolibreAPI() ml.set_debug(False) ml.search(inmuebles) ml.export() print("Fin")
submitted by TulkasNuuk to learnpython [link] [comments]


2020.03.31 22:44 monstredeverre Airbnb is stalling for time

TL;DR : Airbnb poses as good guys says they’ll refund everyone during a global pandemic, invents increasingly specific and hard to obtain documentation requirements for almost 20 days.
Edit: finally refunded after 19 days!
I had to cancel a trip I booked back in October from Portland Oregon to Barcelona Spain scheduled from Mar22-Mar29 due to the COVID-19 outbreak. On Mar 12 the US federal government announced a European travel ban because of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. On Mar 13 I was forced to cancel my Airbnb but was not concerned because I assumed Airbnb would honor their COVID-19 extenuating circumstances policy that states “Reservations for stays and Airbnb Experiences made on or before March 14, 2020, with a check-in date between March 14, 2020 and May 31, 2020, are covered by the policy and may be canceled before check-in. Guests who cancel will have a variety of cancellation and refund options, and hosts can cancel without charge or impact to their Superhost status. Airbnb will either refund, or issue travel credit that includes, all service fees for covered cancellations. In order to cancel under the policy, you will be required to attest to the facts of and/or provide supporting documentation for your extenuating circumstance.”
I reached out to Airbnb Mar13 and received this response over a week later on Mar 21
Hello Ari, My name is Jung from the Airbnb customer support team. I hope my message finds you well.I am sorry for the delay in answering the inquiries due to the unexpected situation. I fully understand your concern about the current situation, but your reservation isn’t covered by our extenuating circumstances policy. However, as you know, the corona virus issue is now seen as a global disaster outside of China, and Airbnb has taken it as a serious issue and has continued to review its policy of reference. But if you can prove that you had an unavoidable reason for cancelling, We can consider full-refund regardless cancellation policy. To help you based on our Extenuating circumstances, We needed documents such as doctor's note that you need to relax during the reservation period or flight cancelled from agency or the newspaper or letter from the government prohibit the travel include effected dates. Please refer to link down below if you want to know what is considered as valid documents, I look forward your answer. What if I need to cancel because of an emergency or unavoidable circumstance? https://www.airbnb.com/help/article/1320 If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact us. Thank you.”
So I provided these bit of proof
  1. A link from the US Spanish embassy https://es.usembassy.gov/covid-19-information/ “Through April 9, the Spanish government is further restricting the operation of non-essential businesses and the movement of employees within the country. Essential services will continue and include transportation, banking, foodstuffs, pharmaceuticals, and healthcare, among others. However, provision of some of these services – including transportation – remains limited. The nationwide State of Alarm will continue through April 11. We are operating with reduced staffing and office hours throughout Spain. For more information see our March 27 Health Alert. U.S. citizens who live in the United States should arrange for immediate return to the United States, unless you are prepared to remain in Spain for an indefinite period. U.S. citizens with immediate travel plans to the United States who do not have a valid passport, but have some form of government-issued identification, may ask their airline for assistance boarding their flight at the airport. If you decide to remain, be sure to join the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) at https://step.state.gov/ to receive the latest information for U.S. citizens in Spain.Options to return to the United States from Spain using commercial carriers are extremely limited. There are no direct flights from Spain to the United States. U.S. citizens will not be allowed to transit Amsterdam on flights from Spain to the United States through at least April 10 and are regularly denied boarding on flights with connections through Amsterdam. Turkey has suspended all passenger flights to/from Spain. U.S. citizens in Spain have been denied boarding on flights to the United States that transit Germany. Consider connecting flights through Paris and London.”
  2. A NYT article discussing travel restrictionshttps://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-travel-restrictions.html “‘On Thursday, the State Department issued a Level 4 “do not travel” advisory, recommending that United States citizens avoid any global travel. This is the highest travel advisory the federal agency can issue. Also this week, the European Union instituted a 30-day ban on nonessential travel to at least 26 European countries from the rest of the world.
This list of countries that have restricted travel, pulled from official government reports and the United States State Department, will be updated as new measures are announced.”
  1. A letter from the Chase Travel Team to my travel companion who co-booked with me on Airbnb and whose name is on the reservation that says “Dear XXX, we regret to inform you that your flights have been cancelled by the airlines due to the Global Coronavirus Outbreak. Based on the policy of the airline, we have received no options to place you on a new flight, therefore we have processed a full refund on your flights.”
  2. A copy of my itinerary including flight numbers and reservation confirmation number and matching COVID-19 United airlines travel waiver with matching flight numbers and confirmation number
  3. https://hub.united.com/united-flight-reductions-suspensions-2020-2645514815.html This link that states “While travel demand and government restrictions continue to impact our schedule, we know some people around the globe are displaced and still need to get home. While our international schedule will be reduced by about 90%, we will continue flying six daily operations to and from the following destinations — covering Asia, Australia, Latin America, the Middle East and Europe — in an effort to get customers where they need to be. This remains a fluid situation, but United continues to play a role in connecting people and uniting the world, especially in these challenging times. Learn more about what we're doing to keep customers and employees safe. … In destinations where government actions have barred us from flying, we are actively looking for ways to bring customers who have been impacted by travel restrictions back to the United States. This includes working with the U.S. State Department and the local governments to gain permission to operate service.
The revised international schedule will be viewable on united.com on Sunday, March 22. We will continue to update our customers with information as it's available.
If you're scheduled to travel through May 31, 2020, and would like to change your plans, there is no fee to do so, regardless of when you purchased your ticket or where you're traveling. Please visit united.com for more information, or reference our step-by-step guide on how to change your flight, cancel and rebook later.
For any customer, including residents from other countries, whose international travel is disrupted by more than six hours because of schedule changes resulting from government restrictions, they will retain a travel credit equal to the value of their ticket. That credit can be used towards any flight, to any destination, for 12 months from the time of purchase. If the customer chooses not to use the credit, they will receive a cash refund at the end of that 12-month period.We continue to aggressively manage the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on our employees, our customers and our business. Due to government mandates or restrictions in place prohibiting travel, we are reducing our international schedule by 95% for April. The revised international schedule will be viewable on united.com on Sunday, March 22.”


To this my rep responded with
“12:10 AM
I understand how you feel, but as I said, it is also an asset to the host. We can only handle it according to policy. I can help you only if I have clear documents. I know it's important to you. We have to deal fairly with the host. Check with the email you sent your friend. There is clearly an announcement that the flight was canceled due to corona virus. You'd better contact your airline company for inquiries.
Airbnb Support
1:48 AM
I will be away for 1 days from now when I will be absent, so I will let you know in advance that I will not be able to reply to you right away.
If you wait for me, I'll get back to you as soon as I get back. If you need more assistance or have any other questions, please contact us again. My colleague will take the case and do his best to help you.
We will try to ensure that the inquiry is completed smoothly.
Thank you very much.”
I have now been forced to reach out United and have spent many hours on the phone with them and have finally received a document that has my name my flight numbers and a reason for flight cancellations and this is what the service rep has sent me
“I'm sorry, but your position is well considered. I really want to help you. We review all the documents you sent us, but they are not enough for our policy. I know it is a precious amount to you. So is the host. It's hard to deal with without sufficient document. All I can do is help you with US$280 coupon. I hope you need consider it carefully.”
I am insulted this is half of what Airbnb owes me according to their own extenuating circumstances policy
So I spent another 4 hours on the phone with United and finally have a document that says my name my flight numbers and the word COVID19 as well as this link
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/ea/travel-advisory-alert-global-level-4-health-advisory-issue.html
that states the following

“Global Level 4 Health Advisory – Do Not Travel

Level 4: Do Not Travel
The Department of State advises U.S. citizens to avoid all international travel due to the global impact of COVID-19. In countries where commercial departure options remain available, U.S. citizens who live in the United States should arrange for immediate return to the United States, unless they are prepared to remain abroad for an indefinite period. U.S. citizens who live abroad should avoid all international travel. Many countries are experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks and implementing travel restrictions and mandatory quarantines, closing borders, and prohibiting non-citizens from entry with little advance notice. Airlines have cancelled many international flights and several cruise operators have suspended operations or cancelled trips. If you choose to travel internationally, your travel plans may be severely disrupted, and you may be forced to remain outside of the United States for an indefinite timeframe.
On March 14, the Department of State authorized the departure of U.S. personnel and family members from any diplomatic or consular post in the world who have determined they are at higher risk of a poor outcome if exposed to COVID-19 or who have requested departure based on a commensurate justification. These departures may limit the ability of U.S. Embassies and consulates to provide services to U.S. citizens.
For the latest information regarding COVID-19, please visit the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) website.
You are encouraged to visit travel.state.gov to view individual Travel Advisories for the most urgent threats to safety and security. Please also visit the website of the relevant U.S. embassy or consulate to see information on entry restrictions, foreign quarantine policies, and urgent health information provided by local governments.
Travelers are urged to enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive Alerts and make it easier to locate you in an emergency. The Department uses these Alerts to convey information about terrorist threats, security incidents, planned demonstrations, natural disasters, etc. In an emergency, please contact the nearest U.S. Embassy or Consulate or call the following numbers: 1(888) 407-4747 (toll-free in the United States and Canada) or 1 (202) 501-4444 from other countries or jurisdictions.
If you decide to travel abroad or are already outside the United States:
· Consider returning to your country of residence immediately using whatever commercial means are available.
· Have a travel plan that does not rely on the U.S. Government for assistance.
· Review and follow the CDC’s guidelines for the prevention of coronavirus.
· Check with your airline, cruise lines, or travel operators regarding any updated information about your travel plans and/or restrictions.
· Visit travel.state.gov to view individual Travel Advisories for the most urgent threats to safety and security.
· Visit our Embassy webpages on COVID-19 for information on conditions in each country or jurisdiction.
· Visit the Department of Homeland Security’s website on the latest travel restrictions to the United States
· Visit Keeping workplaces, homes, schools, or commercial establishments safe.
I’m waiting on Airbnb to explain why this proof isn’t enough and invent a new more impossible hoop for me to jump through.
I really doubt Airbnb is going to honor their policy its really a shame because I loved using Airbnb and was planning to rebook with the same host in the summer or whenever we would be allowed to travel again.
Has anyone else experienced this kind of run around?
submitted by monstredeverre to AirBnB [link] [comments]